Thread by @BallBlastEm

There are THREE Second Year WRs that will need a good chunk of extra targets - JUST TO GET BACK TO the receiving yards that they produced in 2019.

Deebo Samuel
AJ Brown
Mecole Hardman

Stick with me here, I am about to throw a lot of math at you...

Yards after Catch/Reception - (YAC/REC)

Hardman - 11.5
AJ Brown - 8.9
Deebo - 8.5

This is not AT ALL sustainable.

Some players are just VERY GOOD at YAC - but I am sorry, not THIS GOOD.

Considering draft capital, people are expecting 100+ targets for AJB & Deebo (not so much Hardman) in 2020.

I went through all WRs with 100+ tgts over the last 3 seasons & averaged out the YAC/REC for the TOP 10 WRs in this category.

2017 = 5.21
2018 = 5.52
2019 = 5.30

That means over the past 3 seasons, the top 10 WRs in YAC/REC (minimum 100 targets) averaged 5.34 YAC/REC.

So I went through and calculated the yards for every WR in the NFL if they were to average 5.34 YAC/REC.

Deebo would have had 623 yds instead of 802 yds = 10.9 yds/rec instead of 14.1 yds/rec

AJ Brown would have had 866 yds instead of 1051 yds = 16.7 yds/rec instead of 20.2 yds/rec

Hardman would have had 378 yds instead of 528 yds = 14.5 yds/rec instead of 20.7 yds/rec

I then calculated how many more targets that each WR would need to see before they got back to their 2019 receiving yards with 5.34 YAC/REC.

Deebo = 99 tgts (22 more tgts than in 2019)
AJ Brown = 102 tgts (18 more tgts than in 2019)
Hardman = 51 tgts (15 more tgts than in 2019)

With these 3 players, you need a decent boost in targets (which we expect) for them just to produce the same # of receiving yards as in 2019 - and then we need an EXTRA BOOST just to start seeing an increase in # of yards.

Don't tell me that these players are different, and regression won't happen to them...

YAC/REC stats from 2018 to 2019:

DJ Moore - 7.9 to 4.5
Cooper Kupp - 7.6 to 5.8
Tyreek Hill - 6.0 to 4.9
Pettis - 7.9 to LOL

I am honestly being nice giving Deebo & AJB 5.34 YAC/REC in 2020.

Top 4 in YAC/REC (min 100 tgts)

2019:
Godwin - 6.7
Woods - 6.4
Kupp - 5.8
Landry - 5.2

2018:
Hill - 6.0
Hilton - 5.9
Juju - 5.9
Tate - 5.8

'17:
Tate - 6.9
Hill - 6.0
Julio - 5.6
Hilton - 5.2

MAYBE Deebo & AJB can be TOP 3! But they are NOT going to continue avg 8.5+ YAC/REC.

Just be careful when drafting these guys - yes, targets should increase for all 3, but DON'T EXPECT a proportional increase in receiving yards.

There is a much easier path for growth from Year 1 to Year 2 for players that did not rely on YAC/REC for their Year 1 production:

DK Metcalf
Terry McLaurin
Diontae Johnson
Hollywood Brown
Hunter Renfrow
Preston Williams

#FantasyFootball