1/ Bill Gates wants 10+ weeks national deep lockdown or else bad things happen. I expect we won't get that. Therefore there will be multiple cycles of shutdowns grinding down the economy. Plan accordingly. washingtonpost.com/opinions/bill-…
2/ Since the political will isn't there nationally or in all states to do what is necessary the wiser individual states could break from the pack and go for coronavirus elimination. That is an achievable goal.
3/ Alaska has the best prospects to isolate from the rest of USA and eliminate the virus with lockdowns, testing, border control, other. Due to location Alaska can easily reduce and test the movement of people into the state.
4/ You might think Hawaii could isolate, what with being islands. Yes. But the economy of those islands is built on tourism and a cut off of visitors has disastrous economic impacts. So I am doubting the will to long term isolate there and just trade physical .
5/ States that get virus-free could stay that way with roadblocks, mandatory quarantine and testing for all arrivals. They will have a far better next 18 months than the states that keep cycling through limited short lockdowns. The economic divergences will be huge.
6/ It will be far better for a state to commit to a 0 infections goal now because the economic strains will be more severe in future lockdown cycles. To go for 0 infections those states should defy FDA regulations that lower testing capacity. Fight FDA in federal court.
7/ Many states have borders that make it hard for them to control borders. Some of those states could go for infection free status as blocks with neighbors. This would reduce the total amount of border area that needs to be controlled and reduce long term testing needs.
8/ Could New England form a controlled access block that goes for an infections free green zone? How about the northwestern states? Which block of states is best positioned to try and succeed?
9/ You might think that I'm proposing a radical solution. But less radical approaches will fail. A non-radical approach will fail with repeated infection spikes followed by lockdowns, layoffs, business failures. A safe zone of states will have a much higher quality of life.
10/ The ease or difficulty of achieving and maintaining uninfected zones depends on the amount of testing capacity available, level of population compliance with rules, geography, and level of sustained political cooperation. Will some states become winners?
11/ If no states can commit to a sufficient strategy now to go virus free their next best hope is to go for building up testing capacity to reach a testing speed that lets them identify all infected and isolate without a deep shutdown.
