My motto: First, don't die.
Speed up biological research.
Oct 12, 2020 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
1/ For the vaccines in phase 3 testing, even if approved we do not yet know: 1) what fraction of a population will get vaccinated? 2) what fraction will get immunity? 3) will immunity be from symptoms, from bodily damage, from infectiousness? 4) how long will immunity last?
2/ If a vaccine confers immunity on 60% of the vaccinated and then only 60% of the population get vaccinated then only 36% of the population will have immunity.
A person who gets vaccinated in that scenario who is in a risk group can't feel safe about resuming normal life.
Apr 19, 2020 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
1/ The first states to wipe out coronavirus with weekly tests of all would benefit economically as follows:
- people would return to jobs that still exist.
- their demand for local products, services would recreate lost jobs.
- governments would stop huge money losses.
2/ Also:
- some work halted in other states, and demand no longer satisfied, would move to virus-free states.
- some highly mobile workers who can work remotely would move to the much safer states. Whole teams would move in some cases.
Apr 13, 2020 • 11 tweets • 2 min read
1/ Bill Gates wants 10+ weeks national deep lockdown or else bad things happen. I expect we won't get that. Therefore there will be multiple cycles of shutdowns grinding down the economy. Plan accordingly. washingtonpost.com/opinions/bill-…2/ Since the political will isn't there nationally or in all states to do what is necessary the wiser individual states could break from the pack and go for coronavirus elimination. That is an achievable goal.
Apr 12, 2020 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
1/ We need to find ways to allow society to function and yet keep R0 below 1. One key part of that is to avoid breathing in air that others have exhaled. Where is that easiest to do while still interacting with other people? Outdoors.
2/ For example, imagine a lower risk trip to the dermatologist. In warm enough areas the office could be moved to a field with curtains on poles for privacy. The sky above and possibly fans blowing would reduce risk of virus particles.
Apr 12, 2020 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
A vaccine isn't happening this year. People can't stay at home unemployed the whole year. How to go back to work safely?
Can helmets with battery powered filtered air work better than face masks? Why aren't they used? Or diving air tanks?
Certainly everyone should wear face masks, home made if necessary. But we need to do far more to enable the economy to function while we wait for a vaccine some time in 2021 or 2022 or possibly later.
How to make workplaces safer ought to be a major topic of conversation.
Mar 4, 2020 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
1/ What's noteworthy about the flaccid response of governments to #covid19#coronavirus is how widespread it is. In America state and local governments controlled by members of both parties are doing little about it. Look at Seattle and Kirkland with limited school closings.
2/ See how very incremental and limited are the Seattle school closings are for example. cnbc.com/2020/03/03/her…
Nov 26, 2019 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
1/ Mars settlements get way more attention in the press. But I'm far more excited by the idea of asteroid mining. Why? My guess is that asteroid mining will become profitable decades before a Mars settlement could turn a profit. A space effort that turns a profit will grow.
2/ The USA Apollo missions went to the Moon and landed 6 times. Then nothing for decades. Why? No profit. Granted, knowledge. But not knowledge that got people very excited. If asteroid mining could turn a profit then it would drive a bigger sustained human role in space.
Nov 8, 2019 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
1/ Have you noticed that Elon Musk is driving development of at least 4 technologies needed for easier living in a failed state? News about power outages in California brought this home. Obviously he's doing it with the PowerWalls and solar roofs. But not just those.
2/ During the electric power outages the gas stations couldn't pump gas. But someone with a Tesla car could recharge from their PowerWall. So 3 technologies for a failed state. But there's another: cheap rocket launchers from SpaceX. Do you see the relevance to failed states?
Oct 27, 2019 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
1/ Many big problems potentially have government-led solutions, entrepreneur created and led solutions, and solutions initiated at the personal level. But if government, a regulated industry, and political factions created the problem then personal solutions are required.
2/ The California electric power reliability crisis is notable for the lack of a serious proposal for a large scale institutional response to rapidly solve the problem of millions of people people losing power multiple times per year. Will it take literally 10 years to solve?
