1/ Thread on U.S. responses to pandemics over the decades
TL/DR: On every occasion, the U.S. was slow to recognize problem and respond; either overestimated or underestimated the risk; experienced massive setbacks that delayed response; often escaped due to sheer luck
TL/DR: On every occasion, the U.S. was slow to recognize problem and respond; either overestimated or underestimated the risk; experienced massive setbacks that delayed response; often escaped due to sheer luck
2/ 1918-19 Spanish influenza causes 675K U.S. deaths, reduces U.S. life expectancy by 10 years. President Woodrow Wilson says nothing, does nothing, fails to stop WWI troop transports, clamps down on freedom of speech. Catastrophic underreaction.
3/ 1976 H1N1 outbreak at Fort Dix. Pres. Gerald Ford’s health secretary predicts 1 million U.S. deaths. Ford rushes mass vaccination program without adequate testing. Turns out outbreak at Fort Dix was totally isolated and threat was massively overestimated.
4/ Ford charges ahead anyway. Rushed vaccines with manufacturing defects are linked to Guillain-Barre syndrome, boosting anti-vaxxer movt. Number of Americans prepared to get flu shots dwindles, putting nation in danger in future outbreaks. Catastrophic overreaction.
5/ 2009 H1N1 swine flu outbreak in Veracruz, Mexico has high reported case fatality rate. Officials fear half of U.S. population could get it, 90K could die. H1N1 spreads rapidly but turns out to have lower fatality rate than seasonal flu. Risk substantially overestimated.
6/ U.S. is lucky H1N1 is less dangerous than feared, because response is a blunder. Obama Admin promises 160M doses of vaccine by fall, but govt agencies fail to hit targets, do not disclose failures to public for 1 month. Projections revised down to 40M, then 28M doses.
7/ 2013 H7N9 flu in Shanghai has high mortality rate. U.S. govt does nothing, takes overly blasé attitude. HHS holds back on giving go-ahead to begin making vaccine. H7N9 doesn’t reach U.S. and U.S. gets lucky again.
8/ 2014 Ebola outbreak emerges in West Africa. Deadly, but hard to transmit. U.S. & @WHO slow to detect and respond. U.S. govt gives bland assurances that public is safe, but handful of infected patients enter country resulting in some secondary spread, panic.
