I knew U.S. healthcare costs were high, but didn't realize that caring for a terminally ill parent would feel like financial war.
The first time we set foot in a hospital—insured & preauthorized—administrators halted surgery prep & demanded $190,000 (!) cash upfront to proceed
...something that happens nowhere else on earth. Even the wealthiest Americans don't have hundreds of thousands of liquid dollars lying around. But the hospital tried its luck, with a hungry patient who'd fasted all day staring down a terrifying diagnosis, under duress.
Feb 4, 2022 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
This unemployment report is incredible. Wow. Had the prior relationship between Covid cases and employment held true, 800k daily new Covid cases would have led to 2.3 million job losses. Instead, we saw 467,000 job GAINS!
This is mainly due to seasonal adjustment factors. The economy did actually lose 2.8 million jobs, if you look at the seasonally unadjusted data. But that's normal after the holiday season ends and the seasonal bump in retail and transportation subsides.
Feb 3, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
🧵Here's the main reason we are just about certain to see net job losses in tomorrow's #JobsReport
Every month, about 6 million new jobs start and about 6 million jobs end.
Usually, there are +-200k more jobs starting than ending, so net job gains are positive.
Jun 28, 2021 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
The NYT and WSJ today draw the opposite conclusions about how job search has responded to the cancellation of enhanced unemployment benefits in Missouri. Let me give you a few reasons why it is too soon to tell and much harder to infer the causal effect than perhaps it seems.
1. The states ending extra UI benefits early differ from those paying through September 6 in important ways:
- labor shortages were generally worse to begin with in the former group, labor market disruption worse in the latter
- UI coverage rates were lower in the former group
Sep 4, 2020 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
🚨 The private sector added only 1.0 million jobs in August, down from 4.7 million in June and 1.5 million in July. That suggests the jobs recovery is slowing down. #JobsReport 🚨
If we sustain the current pace of recovery, it will be a full year before private sector employment returns to pre-Covid February levels. If the pace of recovery continues to slow, the crisis could drag on for several years.
Jul 7, 2020 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
#JOLTS report shows signs of recovery:
- 5.4 million job openings, up from 5.0 million last month
- 6.5 million hires (a series high due to rehires of workers on temporary layoff in April)
- Quits rate edged up 1.6%
While the number of hires overall hit an all-time record high in May due to rehires of workers on layoff, the number of hires hit an all-time record low in State and Local Government (excluding education) of 70K, down from the more typical 156K in February.
Jun 4, 2020 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
1/ Blacks are 12.3% of total employed, but 16.4% of people employed in justice, public order, and safety activities, according to the Current Population Survey. bls.gov/cps/cpsaat18.h…2/ Blacks, especially women, are overrepresented in the U.S. military (except black men in the @USMC, strangely). There are nearly as many black women as white women in @USArmy, even though there are 5 times as many employed white women as black women in 🇺🇸cfr.org/article/demogr…
Apr 13, 2020 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
1/ Thread on U.S. responses to pandemics over the decades
TL/DR: On every occasion, the U.S. was slow to recognize problem and respond; either overestimated or underestimated the risk; experienced massive setbacks that delayed response; often escaped due to sheer luck
2/ 1918-19 Spanish influenza causes 675K U.S. deaths, reduces U.S. life expectancy by 10 years. President Woodrow Wilson says nothing, does nothing, fails to stop WWI troop transports, clamps down on freedom of speech. Catastrophic underreaction.
