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How to put this carefully:

There are *many* uncertainties surrounding coronavirus *including* about weather.

It seems like the uncertainties are greater if you do *not* assume that weather plays some role in why it spreads more/faster in some places than others.
And that's also what most of the research seems to find. The headlines are often like "don't count on weather to kill coronavirus". But the research itself generally seems to find some effect, though one that's 1) uncertain and 2) very unlikely to be enough to stop it on its own.
Also, some of the "don't get people's hopes up about weather!" sentiment seems misguided even from a strategic communications standpoint, because it could lead to a case where things seem "surprisingly" good in the summer then come back with a vengeance in the fall.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
A worthwhile question is whether NYC had higher fatality rates than it otherwise would because of overwhelmed hospitals. One indication could be if the ratio of deaths to hospitalizations is high, which might indicate i) people avoiding hospitals or ii) not getting adequate care.
Nationally this ratio is 0.19 in the average state to have recently updated its cumulative hospitalization data, with a standard deviation of +/- 0.06. New York state is at 0.25 which is one SD above the mean, so it's definitely on the high side but not some crazy outlier.
In New York City, the ratio is 0.26 using confirmed deaths, although it jumps up to 0.39 if you use the city's count of *probable* deaths. It's not obvious to me which count to prefer here (how are other states/cities handling cases that NYC would consider probable deaths?).
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
One thing I think is becoming clear: many people agreed about shutting down as an initial step, but they may also have had very different ideas about what happened after that.

Here's a list of some of the different "plans"/rationales/expectations that I've heard.
Some of these are mutually exclusive and some aren't. Some are relatively coherent strategies while others are ad-hoc (at best). Some of them people talked about explicitly and some less so.

But the point is, there are a lot of forking paths from the same initial set of actions.
And if there's not consensus around at most a couple of these strategies, one wonders what happens.

If you have 30% of people supporting "hard" shutdowns, 30% of people supporting "soft" showdowns, and 40% of people supporting ending shutdowns...I don't know how that plays out.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Cuomo just said (without referring to it as such) that New York's R is 0.9, i.e. each new infected person is infecting 0.9 more people.
From eyeballing the recent data, I wonder if that's a hair too pessimistic. The deceleration across various metrics has been steeper over the past few days, maybe more in line with an 0.8 or 0.85. Italy claims to have a post-lockdown R of 0.8.
Either way, that's not a ton of room to work with. It's good that R is meaningfully lower than 1, so cases are shrinking instead of growing, but it's unclear how much you can re-open while keeping it <=1.
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