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I talked to @jimtankersley about what happens when the lockdown ends. I think we will have weak demand in some sectors until the virus risk is really reduced. I'll tweet out some graphical evidence here....
First, here's Jim's story, where he also talked to @ernietedeschi and others nytimes.com/2020/04/13/bus…
First, here is Open Table data for a handful of states that were largely still open as of the beginning of this month. What you can see is demand nevertheless declining.
Looking across all states and cities in their data, we can see that the share seeing a 25% decline or more of revenue lead the shutdowns significantly
Now some of this state-level analysis is complicated by cities within states who are closing (like Atlanta in Georgia). So here are the cities Open Table provided data from, with days before and after the first major closing order in that city
Here I treated "gatherings of 100 or more" as the minimum closing, so this is actually rather generously interpreting the lockdowns. You can see that across these cities, demand fell before modest closings started.
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