Thread by @CMichaelGibson

This article has major implications for case fatality rates (CFR) in #coronavirus

Currently CFR = deaths / 1.9% of ppl who test +

Now CFR = deaths / 1.9% + 13.5% of ppl

1.9 + 13.5 / 1.9 = 8.1x ⬆️ denominator meaning the true CFR is 8.1 times ⬇️ &CFR<1
nejm.org/doi/pdf/10.105…

Let me say that more simply:

There are probably 8 times as many or more people walking around with the #coronavirus infection than we thought.

The risk of death is also 8 times or more LESS likely than we thought and probably under 1%.

To be clear: the Case Fatality Rate looks at people who were symptomatic, tested and found to have the disease and wether they lived or died.

This is different: this is more like the Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) which included not just symptomatic but asymptomatic ppl as well

Let’s also be clear about the limitations of the data:
1. They were gathered over a period of time as the pandemic changed and shifted. Were all the + cases near the end of sampling?
2. Only 1 part of 1 city
3. Applies to young pregnant women, not clear about everyone else