BREAKING: New study shows NY COVID-19 positive rate may be 15%.
87% asymptomatic.
nejm.org/doi/full/10.10…
87% asymptomatic.
nejm.org/doi/full/10.10…
First of all apologies for the caveats. One study. Pregnant women only. A point in time. Only in NY.
As all good studies do, begets more questions than answers.
And others certainly may have better interpretations than my own. 2/
As all good studies do, begets more questions than answers.
And others certainly may have better interpretations than my own. 2/
The asymptomatic rate— if supported by other data (sorry I’m going to keep qualifying)— appears to be good news.
Not because it implies a lower case fatality rate— because the % is irrelevant, the number of lives lost are all that matters. 3/
Not because it implies a lower case fatality rate— because the % is irrelevant, the number of lives lost are all that matters. 3/
It’s also not great that it’s so invisible and spreads among so many carriers who don’t know they have it. That’s a real danger to those to whom this is lethal. 4/
But of course it means herd immunity would be achieved more quickly.
If you assumed that all asymptomatic people had a positive test & no asymptomatic ones have, this would imply something like 5mm people have been infected (2% of the country). 5/
If you assumed that all asymptomatic people had a positive test & no asymptomatic ones have, this would imply something like 5mm people have been infected (2% of the country). 5/
By the way this would be almost exactly what one of the scientists I speak to regularly speculated. (Not me. I don’t project these things).
Caveats galore— pregnant women may be more immune. Men are less tested. This was a point in time & it could be higher. No need to guess.6/
Caveats galore— pregnant women may be more immune. Men are less tested. This was a point in time & it could be higher. No need to guess.6/
This type of data will be coming out with more frequency and soon this will be a knowable number.
This information will be important and this is a first datapoint.
I suspect scientists to get ahold of me so I will update here if I learn more. /endfornow
This information will be important and this is a first datapoint.
I suspect scientists to get ahold of me so I will update here if I learn more. /endfornow
Lots of people have commented in the thread. Many raise excellent points about what the study may or may not mean. They mostly sound reasonable. It’s like a sport to poke holes in any conclusions. I don’t know any of their credentials. I do know it’s worth you seeing the study.
