Thread by @deepakshenoy

There are first order effects of this crisis. And second order effects. Everyone thinks in the now. Like
* People won't go to restaurants
* No theaters to watch movies
* There will be very little demand for air travel

That is first order. The second order effect is different.

Restaurants aren't a place to eat food. Theaters aren't a place to watch movies. Coffee shops aren't a place to drink great coffee.

We go there for the experience. You do not get that experience at home, eating the same food, watching the same movie, or drinking better coffee.

The second order is that when things get better - and they will get better - we will desire that very experience. I will watch a crappy movie, for that experience. I'll take that airline, if I can get to the beach or that mountain. It's second order.

The first order impact is quite obvious, because it builds on fear. The second order is not. You can try to predict it but you're going to have to be ready to change because it's kinda dependent on how the first order evolves.

This second order is where the opportunity lies.

The point about the second order is that you have to survive the first order. Which means survival is important. And survival might not necessarily mean conserving cash.