Deepak Shenoy Profile picture
Founder,CEO, @capitalmind_in PMS: https://t.co/Nn5wB9FVRb My book - Money Wise: Build your wealth. Buy now: https://t.co/JVSZENzKXb Signed copy: https://t.co/fwaGZ0QZYo
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Jun 24 6 tweets 2 min read
Zomato wants to buy blinkit for 4500 cr. Mostly Zomato stock locked in for 12m. Some cash. Blinkit loses 66cr a month at contrib level to generate 54 cr revenue.

Zomato shareholders are ok with this? I'm super surprised. Massive 8% dilution to buy insane cash burning biz. We have to assume that all numbers are dressed up so the 66cr contrib monthly loss is likely to be a lottttt more if you put a proper eye to it. And none of this is audited.

Plus contribution means jack. The cost of tech and salaries is not likely even a part of this.
Jun 20 9 tweets 2 min read
So prepaid wallets from non-banks are told specifically that they can't be loaded from a "credit line" (as in, on-demand credit from a lender)

This changes business models for the NBFC-linked wallets that allowed a "buy now pay later" thing with on-tap loans. NBFCs can't have "accounts" that allow you to pay using them. You can take the money into your bank account and pay from the bank. NBFCs aren't allowed to issue cards. Wallet providers aren't allowed to issue credit. Maybe the idea is that NBFC lending should hit a bank ac.
May 4 4 tweets 1 min read
We'll have a lot more on the RBI action today. Few things to start:
a) CRR Hike is a big thing. 4.5% means banks have to keep roughly 7.25 cr. with the RBI interest free. THat's about 85K cr. more than current

Banks will want to pass the cost of this on to borrowers. But... b) Repo rate hike is actually beneficial to banks. Currently VRRR is limited to 3.99% (since repo is 4%) and there is excess liquidity.

New VRRR rate will mean banks can get 4.39%. That's 1/10th higher than earlier! Remember banks have about 500,000 cr. excess liquidity.
May 4 5 tweets 1 min read
RBI says going out of accomodative stance. 10 year moves up to 7.24% Policy Repo moves up to 4.4% with immediate effect. SDF at 4.15%.

This is an off cycle hike, and comes unanimously from MPC.
Mar 17 19 tweets 6 min read
While it seems a little crazy, this is how resolutions work. Ruchi soya, a massive loss making co, has been turned around and made 880 cr. net profit in the last 12 months.

Lemme thread my thoughts here. Ruchi Soya had horrible years of losses, when then were then taken to bankruptcy courts. The bankruptcy process means: this company is dead or dying. Can we resolve it (get a new owner) or should we liquidate (sell all the assets part by part)?
Feb 22 6 tweets 2 min read
A 🧵on why Vaidy of IDFC First Bank would want to gift his house help shares. It's an interesting tax thing. And a way to get goodwill (though there are some negative points) Context: this note by IDFC First Bank yesterday that said Vaidy has donated 900,000 shares to his house and office help, to help them buy houses:
Feb 21 6 tweets 2 min read
RBI will do a sell buy swap for $5 billion rbi.org.in/Scripts/BS_Pre…

A quick 🧵thread: Means RBI will sell $5bn USD on March 10, 2022. It will also buyback $5bn USD on March 11, 2024, two years later.

Banks can say ok I want $100 USD and I will expect RBI to pay me back say Rs. 2.5 more after two years. That's the "auction" where banks will bid for the premium.
Feb 19 11 tweets 3 min read
The NSE Order is a crazy read. The juiciest bits have been discussed of course, but it's amazing how the largest stock exchange has been run. Disclosure: I own BSE, and I think SEBI should quickly level this field (the way they did when BSE was a near monopoly) Chitra Ramakrishna was CEO between 2013 and 2016. A strange "yogi" was there. She shared confidential details of the NSE with this person: Image
Feb 2 8 tweets 3 min read
A thread 🧵on how much retail investors (individuals) dominate daily investing in the markets in India, from the NSE Pulse: static.nseindia.com//s3fs-public/i…

They're 41% of the stock market transactions - down from 45% in 2020-21. Still, massive. Individuals are 29% of index futures - a big drop from 39% in FY 21 and give way to brokers (PRO).
Feb 1 6 tweets 1 min read
Crypto tax: All sales taxed at 30%. No deductions of brokerage etc. allowed. No set-off against any other losses allowed (Is this reading right: you can't even set off losses in other crypto transactions) 1% TDS by the seller on the transaction:
Feb 1 72 tweets 7 min read
Budget 2022: The Big Thread on all things that will be super important today! #Budget2022

Note: no investment advice. Large attempts at humour, not always successful. You've been warned.
cc @capitalmind_in We start with markets, of course. Here's something to keep you occupied for the next 5 seconds: How markets reacted before, during and after budgets, since 2001:
Jan 31 9 tweets 2 min read
RBI did a "switch" today, converting nearly Rs. 120,000 cr. of government securities from short term to long. What does this mean? RBI holds a lot of government bonds. Roughly 11 lakh crores. It should - all central banks tend to own bonds of their own country's government. (RBI owns 42 lakh crores of foreign government bonds, as part of forex reserves)
Jan 20 10 tweets 2 min read
The curious case of the sudden rise in short term interest rates (and liquid funds losing money) yesterday: a thread🧵 This thread may have more questions than answers, but here goes:
Hajaar excess liquidity, so RBI is sucking out money using VRRR (the sound that liquidity makes when it goes back to RBI temporarily)
Jan 10 15 tweets 3 min read
Why do some High Networth Investors get those incredibly high funding for IPOs? A thread:🧵 Take Nykaa. It was gangbuster nuts in terms of subscription. By the last day of the IPO, BSE reports showed the HNI reservation was 100x oversubscribed.

You put 1 crore rupees, you get 1 lakh rupees worth shares. If share doubles, you make 1 lakh but that's just 1%.
Jan 6 6 tweets 2 min read
The Reliance $4 billion bond issue, at 2.8% to 3.75% is a solid achievement - it will reduce their interest cost (will be used to reduce current borrowing) and they're naturally hedged with their exports.

Disclosure: we are interested. Okay since SO MANY PEOPLE seem to have problems with Reliance borrowing money at these obscenely low rates, a thread on why.

Reliance has 80,000 cr. of term loans from banks.
Dec 28, 2021 13 tweets 2 min read
SEBI Board Meeting 🧵

Companies that go IPO saying they'll acquire someone (without saying who) have to only use 25% of amount raised, plus max 10% for "General Corporate Purposes".

Will reduce IPO fund raising unless for a specific purpose. Where a shareholder is selling in the IPO:
- If they own >20% preipo, can max offer half what they own
- if they own <20%, can max offer 1/10th of what they own
Dec 8, 2021 7 tweets 1 min read
Repo unchanged. RBI sounds scared of inflation but not so much. They're gonna use VRRR to keep short term rates relatively high. This means they will continue to be some printing. VRRRs increase, and will have longer VRRRs (28 days already could be more). If you don't understand this don't worry, it will change absolutely nothing about your life.
Nov 24, 2021 4 tweets 2 min read
This is a very weird market. Some of the recent IPOs doing well. Old gen stocks not so much. This doesn't augur that well really - needs a trigger to take it back up One look at the FII data, and god, they are selling like crazy, you would think. But THEY ARE NOT.

FPI data from NSDL (This is the accurate source, not the exchanges) shows that FIIs have put in a whopping 27,000 cr. into IPOs, while taking money out of other stocks.
Nov 22, 2021 5 tweets 1 min read
The PMC rescue: what it means is that rbi insurance pays up to 5l for principal plus interest only till 31 March 2021. If you have more than that you get money in pieces over 10 years but no further interest. That is retail. All corporates who have money in it will get preference shares at 1% dividend per year with 80% of their money.

The remaining 20% will become equity warrants but to convert to equity they get to do it at the lower end of price band whenever bank goes ipo.
Nov 14, 2021 4 tweets 1 min read
Moving out of coal entirely is silly for india right now. We are of course going nuclear for power but it's the rich developed countries that slow us down. We'll move when economics dictate it Electric 2 and 3 wheelers will rock in India, not because they are environmentally better, but because, in a few years, they will be substantially cheaper.

For power, it will be about storage, localization and a move to DC, IMHO, for residential.
Nov 11, 2021 4 tweets 2 min read
How do you find the best Nifty Index Fund? Aren't they all the same? The lowest TER (expense ratio) is the best?

The answer is NO. The "real" expense ratio is very different - and makes the difference. capitalmind.in/2021/11/the-be… The Real Expense Ratio is what the fund really costs you.