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really great news in terms of a way out of this - but the timescales of these two - who really know what they’re talking about - is vaccine availability in second half 2021 - this matters hugely, and why much of the “when are we going to lift the lockdown” stuff misses point...
So yes the OBR economic numbers are incredible, and naturally lead to people pressurising for a lifting of lockdown - but this shows some realistic timescales for the ability for science to defeat the virus... suggesting a long period, many months, of “managing” it...
Listen out for @BBCSimonJack interview with the GSK CEO shortly...
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Faisal Islam
@faisalislam
“Billion items” of PPE distributed is actually 14m identifiable items a day over 53 days, majority of which is pairs of gloves...

No national data on daily usage provided.

What data we do have, locally & internationally suggests it’s not enough.

BLOG: bbc.co.uk/news/business-…
Source material for all figures in blog:

1. DHSC to BBC on breakdown of “billion” PPE items
2. Minister tweeting U Lincolnshire daily usage rates
3. French PM on weekly mask need at 45 million
4. NHSE cumulative Covid deaths spreadsheet, total/by trust
French PM’s chart on its mask supplies v informative, and not data supplied in UK.

“Need” of 45 million masks per week (compared with 5m in January). (In UK “billion items” timeframe, is equivalent of 338m)

Stock of 117m

Massive imports of 81m last week

Domestic production 8m
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Faisal Islam
@faisalislam
PHE doing the daily lengthy rebuttal thing today...

Quite a lot of “the DHSC is responsible for...” the pandemic stockpile/ the supply of PPE/ German-style testing... and then “we have not made any statements about herd immunity...”

gov.uk/government/new…
interesting question here about the Health Protection Agency, which was partly responsible for world leading pandemic preparedness the UK undoubtedly had a decade ago, but which was then rolled in to the new PHE as part of the Coalition deficit plan quango bonfire to save £180m
The HPA was scrapped and replaced by PHE as part of a plan to hand back public health to local Government, but that didnt really end up happening, and as a senior civil servant told the IFG that meant the “disbandment of the HPA which had been a genuine arms length body”...
Read 3 tweets
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Faisal Islam
@faisalislam
The Crude oil price (West Texas Intermediate)...

Has turned NEGATIVE....

MINUS $10 for a barrel of WTI oil... as they can’t find places to store it...

via @Refinitiv
Just touched -$40 [MINUS FORTY DOLLARS] a barrel of
WTI crude oil - what madness is this - NB this is the States - Brent still +ve
This is a thread explaining the specific dynamics of the US oil contract today, if you buy, you have to take delivery tomorrow...
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