Thread by @Healthmac

This pandemic is NOT over. We are right in the thick of it, and it is crucial that we continue with #PhysicalDistancing measures for at least a few more weeks.

However, some reassuring data is emerging.

SO KEEP GOING with public health measures; they're working!

(thread)

Five-day moving average of cases is down, really for the first time since the pandemic wave in Ontario began.

The other down-blip was after @PublicHealthON cleared a backlog of 10,000 cases. More cases reported ~April 1 due to lab working overtime.

Link: russell-pollari.github.io/ontario-covid1…

Percent positivity is flattening.

This the percent of tests that are positive on a given day, and is a key measure, because it helps interpret the case counts. Case counts can go up just because there is more testing. However, note caveat below.

Same link as above.

The caveat with the drop in % positivity is that this is in part due to a big increase in testing in populations that are at high risk of poor outcomes (eg. long-term care residents), although at low risk of being positive (because they live in relatively isolated places).

ER data per @KFLAPH shows trend in patients being admitted to hospital for #COVID19 related illnesses has flattened is likely starting to retreat (black line below). I like this data point because it's less likely to be influenced by policy changes.
kflaphi.ca/aces-pandemic-…

Same "syndromic surveillance" system shows pneumonia admissions at a deep low compared to any point so far in 2020.

An important counterpoint is the epi curve for Ontario. Ignore the last few days; the drop is due to the lag between people getting sick and test results coming back. The last few days will fill in, and they are filling in faster than in past. files.ontario.ca/moh-covid-19-r…

However, even this is showing that are are starting to bend the curve. Note the steep slope from Mar 4-20, followed by the slower climb Mar 20-Apri8.

This is not an epidemic that will peak and drop off quickly. From here on, it's weeks at these higher levels.

So please KEEP IT UP!!! #PhysicalDistancing & public health measures - school & business closures - are working, but they need to keep going.

Go team! We are doing it!