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A question have been asking myself: When infections hit multiple family members (e.g. as a result of home quarantine of mild cases) what are the chances of orphaning any children?
(thread)
A question have been asking myself: When infections hit multiple family members (e.g. as a result of home quarantine of mild cases) what are the chances of orphaning any children?
(thread)
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For any infected person (incl. undiagnosed/mild), the probability of this doubly tragic outcome is:
Cohort IFR x cohort IFR x (probability of transmission)
some guesses using IFR for older folks
a) 0.5% x 0.5% x 60% = 15 per million
b) 1% x 1% x 80% = 80 per million
For any infected person (incl. undiagnosed/mild), the probability of this doubly tragic outcome is:
Cohort IFR x cohort IFR x (probability of transmission)
some guesses using IFR for older folks
a) 0.5% x 0.5% x 60% = 15 per million
b) 1% x 1% x 80% = 80 per million
3/
For a clinically confirmed case, the formula changes to:
Your CFR x partner's IFR x (probability of transmission before isolation)
a) 2% x 0.5% x 40% = 40 per million
b) 2.5% x 1% x 50% = 125 per million
For a clinically confirmed case, the formula changes to:
Your CFR x partner's IFR x (probability of transmission before isolation)
a) 2% x 0.5% x 40% = 40 per million
b) 2.5% x 1% x 50% = 125 per million
4/
Plug in your own guesstimated figures
My low end 15 per million is about 1/8 of the annual risk of being a motor vehicle fatality (1 in 8,303) iii.org/fact-statistic…
Plug in your own guesstimated figures
My low end 15 per million is about 1/8 of the annual risk of being a motor vehicle fatality (1 in 8,303) iii.org/fact-statistic…
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Personally, this estimated risk level is worth bearing some costs to avoid. Really don't want to orphan my kids.
Personally, this estimated risk level is worth bearing some costs to avoid. Really don't want to orphan my kids.
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There are 18 million cohabiting couples in the US. Assuming that (say) 2/3 have dependent children, then 'herd immunity' without a COVID treatment is going to lead to hundreds to low thousands of orphaned Americans. pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017…
There are 18 million cohabiting couples in the US. Assuming that (say) 2/3 have dependent children, then 'herd immunity' without a COVID treatment is going to lead to hundreds to low thousands of orphaned Americans. pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017…
7/
That estimate is via the home infection channel alone. I haven't computed the cases where both partners are infected independently of each other.
To reduce home infection, implement CENTRALIZED QUARANTINE
That estimate is via the home infection channel alone. I haven't computed the cases where both partners are infected independently of each other.
To reduce home infection, implement CENTRALIZED QUARANTINE
