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A thread on my Covid opeds over the past few weeks.
1. What Richard Feynman can tell us about the fragility of global supply chains.
livemint.com/opinion/column…
2. Why India should think of setting up a national risk office to assess its ability to deal with large exogenous shocks such as a pandemic.
livemint.com/opinion/column…
3. The economic impact of the pandemic.
livemint.com/opinion/column…
4. A framework for a Rs 3 trillion income support programme for the poor (with my colleagues @PrakharMisra and @SharmadhaS)
livemint.com/opinion/column…
5. We could take a leaf out of a 1940 booklet by Keynes in our effort to tackle some of the challenges posed by the pandemic
livemint.com/opinion/column…
6. How old-style input-output models can help the government think through its strategy to gradually restart the economy.
livemint.com/opinion/column…
7. The RBI will need to support part of the inevitable fiscal expansion to backstop the economy -- and have an exit strategy as well. How should it monetise the government deficit?
livemint.com/opinion/column…
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Niranjan Rajadhyaksha
@CafeEconomics
This is a long thread on the analytical structure of the inflation targeting regime in India. The tweets below are based on the Quarterly Projection Model of the RBI. The aim is not to get into a debate on inflation targeting but correct some of the misconceptions on Twitter.
The QPM is one of the central pillars of inflation targeting in India. There are ten equations that have been used. I have attempted here to provide a simplified explanation of the structure of this analytical edifice.
1. Aggregate demand comes in the form of an IS equation that estimates the non-agricultural (NA) output gap. That is explained by the past NA output gap, expectations of the future NA output gap, global demand, credit conditions, the real lending rate and the real exchange rate.
Read 14 tweets
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Niranjan Rajadhyaksha
@CafeEconomics
Friday will mark three years since demonetisation was announced. This thread is not on its impact on the Indian economy but on a more technical issue in economics -- the nature of the money supply process. Demonetisation could be seen as a rare natural experiment in this context
The key question is -- what drives money supply growth? The monetarist view is that a central bank alters base money through changes in its balance sheet. The money multiplier then kicks in to generate broad money (M3) that is usually a multiple of base money (M0)
The Post Keynesian view is that bank lending creates M3 while the central bank adjusts its balance sheet to support credit demand. Money is thus endogenously created through economic activity rather than exogenously by the CB. Frankly, I am conflicted on which side is right.
Read 8 tweets
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Niranjan Rajadhyaksha
@CafeEconomics
A thread of eight articles on GST written by Dr Vijay Kelkar for the Mint Views pages the years. These are worth reading again given the growing recognition that India needs to move away from the current suboptimal GST structure (1/8)
February 2009: Reforming the tax system (2/8)
livemint.com/Opinion/e6zGHu…
July 2009: A tax for economic growth (edited excerpts from a speech) (3/8)
livemint.com/Opinion/S0hlNh…
Read 8 tweets

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