Thread by @mariliacout

1. Ressurgence, curves and why loosening social distancing can be disastrous

I've been asked about this too many times so I'll post a quick answer. I should be uploading these to my Medium account but I have a postponed deadline on an article about suicide so, no.

2. I am going to show you four curves:

1. The USA cumulative cases curve
2. The USA daily cases curve
3. The Iran cumulative cases curve
4. The Iran daily cases curve.

3. Please keep in mind that NO COUNTRY is sending epidemiological research data which requires random sampling and testing. Not their fault: there is no time or resources for that.

4. However, this means that the data collected everywhere, and the Johns Hopkins dashboard compiles all of them, does not reflect exactly the pandemic pictures. Is it useless? No it isn't: it is very useful.

5. We call it a "by-proxy" set of data. Since the curves have a certain behavior, we assume the error to be constant in some cases.

6. The USA daily cases curve looks like the descending part of the epidemic bell curve. However, the USA is a continental-size country. I can't be analyzed like, say, Italy.

7. And even Italy had diachronic pattern considering North and South. Epidemiological data are not well behaved when the host is spread in populational clusters separated wide enough to establish partial isolation (like the States in the USA or Brazil, or megalopolis).

8. Bad decisions can make the USA curve look like the Iran curve, except orders of magnitude worse.

9. That is why these decisions should be made by public health specialists and not by politicians and much less by the uneducated folks angry with the obviously catastrophic consequences of the pandemic.

10. First, it's important to understand that it is catastrophic. Wishing or praying it away doesn't work. It will hurt everybody. Unfortunately, it will hurt everybody disproportionately: the very poor, the minorities and the undocumented will suffer far more.

11. Second, a big part of the problem is an irresponsible executive power. In the USA, the one whose face it Trump and in Brazil, Bolsonaro. It is important to understand, though, that the despicable measures announced by Trump, which he boasts are his and his alone, are not.

12. Trump was chosen by the several very powerful economic actors because he is the mirror image of the 30% most uneducated, most racist, most resentful and most dangerous elements of American society.

13. They want to go out and they hate science. Trump is just a face to American fascism.

14. Third, there are ways to handle the inevitable economic disaster and again, it is these governments' fault that it is being so poorly handled. This is not a reason to put other peoples' lives in danger.

15. So what do we do?
- behave according to the true health authorities
- support the health authorities
- do not listen or share media content that is not supported by science
- silence the idiotic regressive mass (don't interact, digitally or personally)
- vote them out

16. NEVER FORGET THIS LESSON.

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