Watching this video of #Tegnell being interviewed by a US think tank earlier today. You'll probably learn more about the Swedish approach from this than anywhere else. I watched it live, now going through again and have a few questions ...
gmfus.org/events/europes…
gmfus.org/events/europes…
He praises the drop in cases in Demark as impressive, but says at 25:30 that Belgium and France are still seeing a quick rise in cases.
I just checked the data (ourworldindata.org/coronavirus#al…), that's not what it looks like in Belgium and France at all. What is his source?
I just checked the data (ourworldindata.org/coronavirus#al…), that's not what it looks like in Belgium and France at all. What is his source?
30:00 he says that Sweden has slowed down the spread very very much without worrying about asymptomatic spread
What is his definition of "very very much"?
Deaths have gone from doubling every 3-4 days to (data pending) doubling about every 7 days. Is this the data he refers to?
What is his definition of "very very much"?
Deaths have gone from doubling every 3-4 days to (data pending) doubling about every 7 days. Is this the data he refers to?
I'd note that on April 9 it appeared the doubling rate was down to 5 for the period March 30 to March 4, now it's down to 4, so we can expect the doubling time to decrease as data is updated
March 30 to April 4
Back to this.
35m he says they are *now* ramping up testing in old people facilities and staff, prior to this was primarily suspected cases in hospital.
Says the reason why it has spread in old people's home is lack of testing capacity.
Which raises a most impt question. Why?
35m he says they are *now* ramping up testing in old people facilities and staff, prior to this was primarily suspected cases in hospital.
Says the reason why it has spread in old people's home is lack of testing capacity.
Which raises a most impt question. Why?
Especially given the strategy from the beginning was "protect the elderly"?
37 minutes, says "herd immunity" isn't a policy or strategy per se, but is something they're hoping to achieve.
37:50 he says everyone who needs an intensive care bed has got one.
I'm skeptical of this given the % of infected who are over 70yrs old has gone up while the % of CV19 patients who are over 70 has gone down significantly (march vs april to date)
I'm skeptical of this given the % of infected who are over 70yrs old has gone up while the % of CV19 patients who are over 70 has gone down significantly (march vs april to date)
39:15 he says he believes the mortality rate is 1% or less. Claimed a few days ago their data indicated 2.5% of stockholmers infected. Stockholm region has around a million inhabitants and 702 recorded dead (as of today).
That's a CFR of 2.8.
That's a CFR of 2.8.
so to be under 1 he's talking about as much as 2-3 time as many stockholmers infected that are already now potentially immune but no longer positive.
Not actually out of the question IMO, but data from other countries makes me less hopeful.
Not actually out of the question IMO, but data from other countries makes me less hopeful.
Uhoh. 39.30 he's now comparing it to the flu. Says we have 1500-2000 die from flu every year in Sweden, and the numbers now are not a "staggering number of people".
Says he still thinks death rate may not be so different to the flu
Says he still thinks death rate may not be so different to the flu
Problem with that is flu death rates (around 0.1%) are also influenced by a large number of undetected cases not included in the calculation.
Can't say real CV19 death rates are lower because of undetected cases and not do the same to flu rates.
Can't say real CV19 death rates are lower because of undetected cases and not do the same to flu rates.
Ok, says at 40:20 (correctly) that the big problem is the number who get infected and speed of infection. Says 5-7% of Swedes get the flu
quick check - Says 1500-2000 die of flu each year, 5-7% infected - that's 0.2% to 0.4% CFR for flu, 1 to 4 times reported?
quick check - Says 1500-2000 die of flu each year, 5-7% infected - that's 0.2% to 0.4% CFR for flu, 1 to 4 times reported?
But then says 40-50% of population will be infected by SARSCOV2
5000000 infected, so 10000-20000 expected dead using #Tegnell's own figures if it's, like he says, similar to the flu in mortality in Sweden.
5000000 infected, so 10000-20000 expected dead using #Tegnell's own figures if it's, like he says, similar to the flu in mortality in Sweden.
Continuing ... 42:00 onwards talks about taking in to account the negative health effects on children of closing schools, long-term. Says they think would decrease healthcare workforce by 20%!
I'm skeptical of that number, would like to see how it was calculated.
I'm skeptical of that number, would like to see how it was calculated.
At 44:00 he seems to acknowledge that Sweden *is* following the path the UK started on and then reversed.
Says that can't see any further restrictions in Stockholm, doesn't think it will get worse there, but may look at it in other parts of Sweden if things change
Says that can't see any further restrictions in Stockholm, doesn't think it will get worse there, but may look at it in other parts of Sweden if things change
Again claims, 47:20, that they're seeing a slowdown in Stockholm. Guess I better look closer at the regional data.
47:30 onwards, talks about their belief the spread will slow in the summer, not just due to weather, but because of lifestyle changes
(what, you mean like schools and businesses are closed??)
Says Sweden's model is sustainable for months or years, doesn't think others are
(what, you mean like schools and businesses are closed??)
Says Sweden's model is sustainable for months or years, doesn't think others are
50:00 onward, talking about vaccine potential. Need to make sure it's safe. Mentions the problem with the swine flu vaccine causing narcolepsy - somewhere he was deeply involved in the decision making.
He seems clearly skeptical a vaccine will be widely available
He seems clearly skeptical a vaccine will be widely available
53:00 acknowledges letting the virus run free would result in large amount of deaths in the elderly
53:40 face masks - prioritise hospitals. says there is a shortage
then elderly care
53:40 face masks - prioritise hospitals. says there is a shortage
then elderly care
says face masks won't provide protection from being infected, but acknowledges some research it will help stop others being infected, but more important to stay home if you've got symptoms, so no point if you've no symptoms
says 55:15 now their grappling with what face masks should be used and when in the care of the elderly.
Excuse me a moment .....
Excuse me a moment .....
YOUR ENTIRE STRATEGY IS BASED AROUND PROTECTING THE ELDERLY AND YOU'RE ONLY NOW THINKING ABOUT THIS ISSUE?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!??!!??!?!!??!?
ok, i'll try to calm down.
Says still no consensus on face masks in care for elderly. Testing is a better, so need to inrease that, but maybe combine with masks.
You don't think maybe it's a little too late, Anders?
Says still no consensus on face masks in care for elderly. Testing is a better, so need to inrease that, but maybe combine with masks.
You don't think maybe it's a little too late, Anders?
57:30 he talks about frontline workers like cashers having flexi-glass covers and protection now.
I've noticed that too - where did the recommendation come from, anyone know?
Says doesn't know if kids are infectious, but isn't seeing outbreaks in schools
I've noticed that too - where did the recommendation come from, anyone know?
Says doesn't know if kids are infectious, but isn't seeing outbreaks in schools
hmmm ... if you're not even testing age care facilities, how would you know if there's an outbreak in schools? 🙄
No science to see if teachers should be concerned.
No science to see if teachers should be concerned.
58:20 asked why Sweden doesn't have projections on deaths. Replies they have projections on health care needs, doesn't think they need death toll because they think they're doing enough to mitigate
(hmmm ... his own figures say 10000-20000 dead if it's not worse than flu)
(hmmm ... his own figures say 10000-20000 dead if it's not worse than flu)
Back to acknowledging the failure to protect the elderly in Sweden, says that's why Norway is doing better.
1:00:00 says there's a big problem with access to PPE and other supplies. Making it for now, but only just. There's a problem with the responsibility split between state and federal government
1:01 says we need a better system to care for the elderly.
I've worked in hemtjänst (home care) as a last minute temp worker. This is not news. Appears they completely dropped the ball here, despite it being the major part of their approach
I've worked in hemtjänst (home care) as a last minute temp worker. This is not news. Appears they completely dropped the ball here, despite it being the major part of their approach
1:03:30 ... okay, this is BIG. Says they have reasons to believe we've reached at least "half way" of the major wave of the pandemic in parts of Sweden, and reasonably close to herd immunity in those parts.
That is an extraordinary claim
That is an extraordinary claim
fact check: flu deaths in Sweden is more like 500-1000
