Arguably the most important "high frequency" stat is initial claims. Tomorrow's estimate is 5.4m (gray bar).
This would bring the total to around 22m, 13.5% of the workforce. It would also make the April payroll estimates of a loss of 20 million jobs look about right.
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This would bring the total to around 22m, 13.5% of the workforce. It would also make the April payroll estimates of a loss of 20 million jobs look about right.
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I believe continuing claims will replace initial claims as the important metric. Watching this come down will tell us about the effectiveness of the Paycheck Protection Plan (PPP) loans. Are people getting their old jobs back (so the company can have the loan forgiven)?
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If continuing claims are not down A LOT by, say 75% by Jul-1, regardless the state of the "restart," the PPP did not work. These jobs are gone!
If the stock market recovers and millions are unemployed at the same time, the social unrest will be far worse than 2009.
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If the stock market recovers and millions are unemployed at the same time, the social unrest will be far worse than 2009.
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