1/4

Everyone needs to calm down about the Atlanta Fed GDPnow flipping to negative (chart).

It was driven by one statistic, merchandise trade imports, which can snap back as early as next month and take GDPnow back up.

The world is not ending. 2/4

Here is the Merchandise trade deficit.

I labeled the last three months to show how much it blew out (and March 2022).

1/7

Two major problems need to be addressed, and yes, I agree they cannot be ignored anymore (think @HoweGeneration fourth turning).

The first is the debt situation, as @nfergus detailed:

https://x.com/biancoresearch/status/1893724021834887593

2/7

The US cannot continue this level of deficit/debt. Increasing taxes and spending cuts will not correct this without hurting the economy.

2024 deficits were 6.58% of GDP. This happens in major crises (civil war, WW2, etc.). What is the major crisis now? Too much debt?

1/16

A thread on The Mar-A-Lago Accord (MALA).

tl:dr

Take it seriously, not literally

The status quo cannot last. If we do nothing, it ends badly. What is the alternative?

Most of it has either already happened, or is underway. We weren't aware of the name. 2/16

Powell on Dec 4, 2024 - “The U.S. federal budget is on an unsustainable path. The debt is not at an unsustainable level, but the path is unsustainable, and we know that we have to change that"

thehill.com/business/50225…

1/5

I have not posted a spot $BTC ETF update in a while, so here is one.

These ETFs started trading a year ago (Jan 11, 2024). Their total assets are $114 billion. (Note that they started at $29B on day 1 due to the $GBTC conversion.)

Three funds make up the vast majority. 2/5

The net NEW money invested in all Spot BTC ETFs was $36.69B (bottom panel).

This excludes the $29B of $GBTC conversion on day 1.

1/5

*US DEC. ISM MANUFACTURING INDEX RISES TO 49.3; EST. 48.2

ISM beat

And as the chart shows, this is the second-highest reading since October 2022 (26 months).

(best sure to see the last post in this thread) 2/5

Prices Paid 52.5 versus the estimate of 51.8

It is staying "sticky" above 50 (meaning more rising than falling prices)

Remind me again ... why is the Fed cutting rates?

1/3

The repost below expresses a common belief that risk assets are effective inflation hedges.

History suggests they are not.

This chart shows that the inflation of the 1960s and 1970s wiped out 64% of the after-inflation stock gains by 1982 (meaning inflation beat stocks by 64%). And all inflation-adjusted gains of the previous 27+ years (back to 1954) were gone (meaning inflation beat stocks over the previous 27 years).

It took until 1992, 28 years later, for stocks to finally start beating cumulative inflation since 1966. 2/3

Too many vastly underestimate the devastating impact of inflation.

Since the 2021 peak, when the Fed called inflation"transitory," stocks have only beaten inflation by just 15% (with dividends).

So a 10% to 12% correct and a little bit more inflation and four years of relative purchasing power is gone (meaning you are no better off than four years ago).

1/6

🧵on yields and yield curve
---
The 30-year yield made a new 2024 close high yesterday.

Now, the highest yield since November 2023. 2/6

The 10-year yield is just eight basis points away from a new 2024 high.

Two trading days left this year.

1/3

What is TLT Signaling?

TLT is the iShares 20-Treasury ETF, one of today's largest and most influential bond ETFs.

I've been arguing that the bond market rise in yields as the Fed cutting rates has been a rejection of the easing cycle. The bond market is saying the Fed has the wrong policy.

Monetary easing is not necessary given the strength of the US economy (See Atlanta Fed GDPnow) and the coming "Trump Stimulus. Fed easing is raising inflation expectations and driving yields higher.

Here is a chart of TLT's price (black) and cumulative flows (red).

From the day the Fed started hiking (March 16, 2022) to the November 7, 2024, FOMC meeting (labeled), cumulative inflows were steady, totaling over $55 billion.

A reasonable interpretation is that bond investors agreed with the Fed's policy from March 2022 to November 2024, even if it was hiking, as it was fighting inflation.

However, since the Fed cut again in November, bond investors have reversed and fled the bond market. Almost $10 billion has left TLT. 2/3

The bottom panel is a rolling 30-day flow into TLT. The last 30 days have seen a cumulative outflow of $8.69B, easily the largest 30-day outflow in TLT's history.

Again, this outflow started with the November 7 Fed cut, which I interpret as the market screaming "no" at the Fed about its move.

1/6

Good Q, I will answer why.

The market is signaling the Fed is not serious about inflation.

10-year yields during rate cut cycles since 1981 (the 100-year inflation and yield high).

2024 (black) is the biggest yield rise in a cutting cycle in at least 40 years.

https://twitter.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1869838707454554342

2/6

However, the 2024 yield move (black) looks similar to the yield moves during pre-1981 rate-cutting cycles.

In the 1960s and 1970s, the market worried about inflation.

When the Fed cut, the market screamed "no," and long-term yields rose—like 2024 (black).

1/7

The study below says the 60/40 portfolio is dead. Everyone should now be 100% invested in stocks.

However, they recommend 33% in U.S. stocks and 66% in int'l stocks.

Quick 🧵

tl:dr The U.S. has the most momentum and is also the world's most expensive stock market.

https://twitter.com/biancoresearch/status/1868118492416966668

2/7

About a 66% Int'l allocation.

The U.S. (upper blue) has outperformed the rest of the world, while everyone else is underperforming the world average (black).

Momentum is a potent drug for investing, and the U.S. has it. It works great—until it doesn't—and it often doesn't without warning.

It turns out that the biggest soap opera in Trump's nominations is the Treasury Secretary. As the graphic below shows, it is as close to 50/50 as it gets.
---

My Take

The Treasury Secretary gets to sit in the room and opine on policy. And their voice will be taken seriously.

But they do not set the policy; the President does. When the president says what they will do, they expect the Treasury Secretary to sell that policy as if it were theirs.

The second part, selling something they don't believe in but are told to do, is something Jamie Dimon will never do, so he will never be the Treasury Secretary. (Dimon wants to tell everyone else what they should sell).

Lutnick will sell whatever you tell him and do it with gusto! Bessert will do so too, but he does not command the room like Lutnick.

In other words, the Treasury Secretary is the administration's chief spokesman. This is a sales job, and it needs a salesperson.

The problem with Yellen was that she needed to be a better salesperson. Yes, she is an outstanding economist, but she was never a good spokesperson for the Biden Agenda.

She would have been a better National Economic Council head, the "smart person in the shadows advising the President."

If I had to guess ....

Lutnick = Treasury Secretary
Bessert = National Economic Council head

https://x.com/jkylebass/status/1856710954576134152?s=46&t=uSnZlSLOtzvp-jqg6eHG4Q

1/6

Six questions I would ask Powell (which, of course, he will not answer).

1. Why did this happen? 2/6

2. Question 1 caused this. How is this helping?

1/6

An update 🧵

We manage a fixed-income total return index. It is based on our discretion.

It is called The Bianco Research Total Return Fixed-Income Index.

On Bloomberg, it is BTRINDX <index>, or at its website biancoadvisors.com 2/6

As of Friday, November 1st, our Index outperformed the Bloomberg US Aggregate Index by 107 basis points.

1/3

The Sahm Rule was Triggered in July, red bars. This means a recession has ALREADY STARTED. (The definition is on the chart).

It was "un-triggered" with the October unemployment rate.

@Claudia_Sahm 2/3

The Sahm Rule works because once it is triggered, the unemployment rate soars.

The last time it was triggered and then un-triggered a few months later was in 1959 when the recession was still 2 1/2 years away.

1/6

Like you, I see the regular posts about the Spot BTC inflow records. Running out of superlatives.

They are correct. We have never seen anything like it.

@JSeyff @EricBalchunas @Matt_Hougan @dotkrueger @btcjvs @fejau_inc @qthomp @Tyler_Neville_ @MikeIppolito_ @NateGeraci 2/6

Why isn't the price going up? (orange)

Since the BTC ATH on March 13 ($74.3k):
* Spot BTC ETFs flows >$12B (blue)
* The halving (April 19)
* Trump endorsement (July)
* Tech/SPX mania
* Fed Cut (Sept)

The price should have hit $100k months ago.

Instead, it's down 4%.

1/5

My Favorite Anecdote About The Economy

A good way to measure the perceived health of the US economy is to measure the public's ability to spend on things they want but do not need, aka discretionary spending.

🧵 2/5

The Conference Board's survey of 3,000 Households asking whether they are planning a foreign vacation in the next six months.

This month, the survey hit another all-time high: 22% of US households say they will vacation overseas in the next six months.

1/11

🧵on Election Betting Update and its impact on markets.

Trump’s betting:

Average of all betting markets (black)

The three largest betting markets
Polymarket (blue)
Predictit (orange)
Kalshi (green).

Effectively, they all have the same results and trends. 2/11

Are these markets trading at the wrong level (suggesting manipulation)? I would still argue no.

Real Clear Politics aggregates polls using a simple moving average.

For the first time since August 4, Trump leads in NATIONAL polling.

1/15

Updating ...

Election betting markets continue to trade close to where they should based on available information. Not manipulated.

Betting markets are supposed to anticipate the polls, and that is what they are doing.

Be sure to see the last post in this thread.

🧵 2/15

This chart shows Trump trading to win the election.

The black line is the average of eight betting markets.

Polymarket (blue), Predicit (orange) and Kalshi (green) are shown separately as well.

Trump is trading in all markets >50% and has been in an uptrend for weeks.

1/4

Someone tried to manipulate Polymarket overnight. It did not work. All markets returned to normal before we woke up; presumably, the manipulators lost money.

This is what true manipulation looks like, and it always loses.

🧵 2/4

Between 9:20 PM CT and 11:30 PM CT (shaded area), a flood of Sell Trump and Buy Harris trades flooded Polymarket (thick lines), moving these markets about five points.

This is the perfect time to do this kind of trade ... around midnight ET on Saturday night.

Note the thin lines. Kashi and Predictit did not react to this flood of Polymarket orders.

This manipulation attempt was completely reversed by 3:30 AM CT before you woke up.

Presumably, the manipulators lost money.

1/5

The deficit, (both on a dollar amount (top panel) and % of GDP (which still uses Q2 GDP for the latest plot; Q3 GDP is out Oct 30).

See the horizontal dotted line on the bottom panel; the deficit is STILL larger today than at the peak of most recessions.

https://twitter.com/america/status/1847630986516828403

2/5

Here is a long-term look at the deficit.

(OMB has not yet been updated on yesterday's Treasury release. So the last plot diverges slightly with above.)

1/4

Volatility measures are elevated, suggesting markets are "bracing" for the post-election markets.

🧵

Start with the bond market (stocks in thread #3).

The MOVE Index (the "VIX of the Bond Market") closed at its highest level since December 7, 2023. 2/4

Why?

The MOVE is the implied volatility of 30-day options (from 2-yr to 30-yr). Oct 6 was within 30 days of the election; it spiked right after.

The MOVE is saying "buckle up" for election week.

Hedging post-election volatility (selling calls/buying puts) is now costly.