It turns out that the biggest soap opera in Trump's nominations is the Treasury Secretary. As the graphic below shows, it is as close to 50/50 as it gets.
---

My Take

The Treasury Secretary gets to sit in the room and opine on policy. And their voice will be taken seriously.

But they do not set the policy; the President does. When the president says what they will do, they expect the Treasury Secretary to sell that policy as if it were theirs.

The second part, selling something they don't believe in but are told to do, is something Jamie Dimon will never do, so he will never be the Treasury Secretary. (Dimon wants to tell everyone else what they should sell).

Lutnick will sell whatever you tell him and do it with gusto! Bessert will do so too, but he does not command the room like Lutnick.

In other words, the Treasury Secretary is the administration's chief spokesman. This is a sales job, and it needs a salesperson.

The problem with Yellen was that she needed to be a better salesperson. Yes, she is an outstanding economist, but she was never a good spokesperson for the Biden Agenda.

She would have been a better National Economic Council head, the "smart person in the shadows advising the President."

If I had to guess ....

Lutnick = Treasury Secretary
Bessert = National Economic Council head

https://x.com/jkylebass/status/1856710954576134152?s=46&t=uSnZlSLOtzvp-jqg6eHG4Q

1/6

Six questions I would ask Powell (which, of course, he will not answer).

1. Why did this happen? 2/6

2. Question 1 caused this. How is this helping?

1/6

An update 🧵

We manage a fixed-income total return index. It is based on our discretion.

It is called The Bianco Research Total Return Fixed-Income Index.

On Bloomberg, it is BTRINDX <index>, or at its website biancoadvisors.com 2/6

As of Friday, November 1st, our Index outperformed the Bloomberg US Aggregate Index by 107 basis points.

1/3

The Sahm Rule was Triggered in July, red bars. This means a recession has ALREADY STARTED. (The definition is on the chart).

It was "un-triggered" with the October unemployment rate.

@Claudia_Sahm 2/3

The Sahm Rule works because once it is triggered, the unemployment rate soars.

The last time it was triggered and then un-triggered a few months later was in 1959 when the recession was still 2 1/2 years away.

1/6

Like you, I see the regular posts about the Spot BTC inflow records. Running out of superlatives.

They are correct. We have never seen anything like it.

@JSeyff @EricBalchunas @Matt_Hougan @dotkrueger @btcjvs @fejau_inc @qthomp @Tyler_Neville_ @MikeIppolito_ @NateGeraci 2/6

Why isn't the price going up? (orange)

Since the BTC ATH on March 13 ($74.3k):
* Spot BTC ETFs flows >$12B (blue)
* The halving (April 19)
* Trump endorsement (July)
* Tech/SPX mania
* Fed Cut (Sept)

The price should have hit $100k months ago.

Instead, it's down 4%.

1/5

My Favorite Anecdote About The Economy

A good way to measure the perceived health of the US economy is to measure the public's ability to spend on things they want but do not need, aka discretionary spending.

🧵 2/5

The Conference Board's survey of 3,000 Households asking whether they are planning a foreign vacation in the next six months.

This month, the survey hit another all-time high: 22% of US households say they will vacation overseas in the next six months.

1/11

🧵on Election Betting Update and its impact on markets.

Trump’s betting:

Average of all betting markets (black)

The three largest betting markets
Polymarket (blue)
Predictit (orange)
Kalshi (green).

Effectively, they all have the same results and trends. 2/11

Are these markets trading at the wrong level (suggesting manipulation)? I would still argue no.

Real Clear Politics aggregates polls using a simple moving average.

For the first time since August 4, Trump leads in NATIONAL polling.

1/15

Updating ...

Election betting markets continue to trade close to where they should based on available information. Not manipulated.

Betting markets are supposed to anticipate the polls, and that is what they are doing.

Be sure to see the last post in this thread.

🧵 2/15

This chart shows Trump trading to win the election.

The black line is the average of eight betting markets.

Polymarket (blue), Predicit (orange) and Kalshi (green) are shown separately as well.

Trump is trading in all markets >50% and has been in an uptrend for weeks.

1/4

Someone tried to manipulate Polymarket overnight. It did not work. All markets returned to normal before we woke up; presumably, the manipulators lost money.

This is what true manipulation looks like, and it always loses.

🧵 2/4

Between 9:20 PM CT and 11:30 PM CT (shaded area), a flood of Sell Trump and Buy Harris trades flooded Polymarket (thick lines), moving these markets about five points.

This is the perfect time to do this kind of trade ... around midnight ET on Saturday night.

Note the thin lines. Kashi and Predictit did not react to this flood of Polymarket orders.

This manipulation attempt was completely reversed by 3:30 AM CT before you woke up.

Presumably, the manipulators lost money.

1/5

The deficit, (both on a dollar amount (top panel) and % of GDP (which still uses Q2 GDP for the latest plot; Q3 GDP is out Oct 30).

See the horizontal dotted line on the bottom panel; the deficit is STILL larger today than at the peak of most recessions.

https://twitter.com/america/status/1847630986516828403

2/5

Here is a long-term look at the deficit.

(OMB has not yet been updated on yesterday's Treasury release. So the last plot diverges slightly with above.)

1/4

Volatility measures are elevated, suggesting markets are "bracing" for the post-election markets.

🧵

Start with the bond market (stocks in thread #3).

The MOVE Index (the "VIX of the Bond Market") closed at its highest level since December 7, 2023. 2/4

Why?

The MOVE is the implied volatility of 30-day options (from 2-yr to 30-yr). Oct 6 was within 30 days of the election; it spiked right after.

The MOVE is saying "buckle up" for election week.

Hedging post-election volatility (selling calls/buying puts) is now costly.

1/9

I'm also looking forward to this debate with Bloomberg's @JSeyff and Blockwork's @fejau_inc at Permissionless III in Salt Lake.

🧵updating some of my charts.

I will explain onstage.

https://twitter.com/JSeyff/status/1843739326288671227

2/9

Breakdown of Assets

Total asset growth stalled in March. iShares IBIT (blue) is taking a bigger and bigger share from Grayscale GBTC (orange). Everything else (red) is about a third.

1/3

China's Govt keeps firing one stimulus Bazooka after another.

Today's installment ...
SCMP: Shanghai, other top tier-1 cities ease ownership curbs in boost for China’s housing market

Results in ...
*CHINA PROPERTY STOCKS GAUGE JUMPS 11% AFTER EASING MEASURES

And causing ....
*CHINA'S CSI 300 UP 22% FROM SEPT. LOW, HEADED FOR BULL MARKET

(biggest such rally since 2008) 2/3

The Chinese finally stimulating domestic demand gives hope that they will start to consume more.

This idea is significantly contributing to this unfolding rally in industrial metals.

Example
*IRON ORE SURGES ALMOST 8% AS CHINESE CITIES EASE HOME CURBS

1/9

All Models Are Wrong, Some Are Useful

Let the Index of Leading Economic Indicators' failure to predict the post-COVID economy be a reminder that this is no longer the pre-COVID economy.

Assuming it is as too many do, including Powell, is how mistakes are made.
🧵 2/9

The August Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) was released yesterday. It is a model of ten indicators that predict the economy.

conference-board.org/topics/us-lead…

1/3

Below, I described how the Fed meeting now has maximum uncertainty just a few days before they met. This is unprecedented.

🧵 on how the process works. (Very inside baseball).

https://twitter.com/biancoresearch/status/1834998770008048024

2/3

Remember, Powell wants a 12-0 vote for every policy decision. He is now working the phones by calling every FOMC member to "horse trade" into a 12-0 vote.

He believes that a 12-0 vote gives policy credibility. Dissents, in Powell's opinion, create doubt and uncertainty.

Powell explained this to Davis Rubenstein in July.
---
From the raw transcript, I edited it for readability

7:58 Powell: The way it works is I talk to the other 18 participants regularly. I speak to them at least once ten days before the meeting and think about this three or four weeks before.

What should we want to achieve? What data do we need to see? How do we want to change our Communications? All those things.

So, I talk to people, listen to them, and try to put together an answer that has broad support on the committee. So when we go into the committee on Tuesday morning [its start], I'm usually confident that I know where this will go.

8:55 Powell: These call calls are generally scheduled and go all day. The Friday before the meeting, I think I have 11 half-hour calls. We talk about the economy, we talk about very specific aspects of the economy, about our mandate, and then we talk about policy, so there's a lot to talk about. I take careful notes.

You can hear him explain it here.

1/5

Actually, this is different.

Before the June 15, 2002, and March 22, 2023 FOMC meetings, the odds of a Fed move were very uncertain, ~50/50.

@NickTimiraos's stories right before these meetings removed uncertainty.

Yesterday's story created uncertainty (chart).

🧵 2/5

Going into the June 15, 2022, FOMC meeting, things were uncertain with a 35% - 45% odd 75bps hike.

@NickTimiraos cleared it up with this:
June 13, 2022 (48 hours before the meeting)
Fed Likely to Consider 0.75-Percentage-Point Rate Rise This Week
wsj.com/articles/bad-i…

1/5

Could we be mistaking declining inflation for "residual seasonality?"
🧵

@RickRieder

https://twitter.com/RickRieder/status/1834076623542341692

2/5

The 3-month (orange) and 6-month (blue) annualized inflation rates are much lower than the yoy measure (black).

The argument is these shorter annualized rates matter more because they are more recent.

So, mission accomplished, inflation has been defeated.

1/8

Spot BTC ETFs update

tl:dr
* Inflows now outflows
* Holders have record losses
* Advisors <10% of holdings (boomers never came)
* Avg trade size now <$12k.

It's not an adoption vehicle. Instead a small tourist tool and on-chain is returning to Tradfi.

See posts #4 and #8 2/8

* Total assets in all Spot BTC ETFs are now $46B.
* Down from its June leak of $62B.
* The $46B asset total is the lowest since February 12

1/5

What to Expect When You’re Expecting

The Fed will begin cutting rates later this month. What should we expect, and what will follow? And how we are positioned for it?

biancoadvisors.com/what-to-expect… 2/5

A few highlights (much more in the link above)...

The blue line below shows the Fed’s funds rate projections from the June Summary of Economic Projections. By December 2025, they expected the funds rate to be 4.125%, with five 25-basis-point cuts.

The red line shows what the market is currently pricing in. The market expects the funds rate to be 3.12% at the end of December 2025, with nine 25-basis-point cuts over the next 15 months.

The market expects this month’s rate cut to start an aggressive rate-cutting cycle.

1/13

Me on CNBC with Rick Santelli, talking about migration and labor market data. 2/13

The black line in the following chart shows U.S. population growth. It details where this growth comes from – domestic population growth (blue) and net migration (red).

Immigration has driven population growth in the past few years.

1/7

Professional money managers are bullish on bonds.

"Civilians" are bullish bonds.

Everyone is bullish on bonds, and they expect Powell's J-Hole speech this Friday to increase their "P" and eliminate "L" from their P&L.

🧵 2/7

Start with the Pros ...

The August BofA Global Fund Managers Survey, 189 managers with $508 billion under management:

93% of global fund managers think short rates will be lower in a year, the highest percentage in the 23 years they have been asking this question.