Chicago hedge-fund billionaire Kenneth Griffin said he won a $43.2 million first-edition copy of the U.S. Constitution at a Sotheby’s auction on Thursday—and now he intends to lend it to a free Arkansas art museum.
Yes, he is a long established big art buyer, and sits on many art museum boards.
But I do not believe he has shown interest in Revolutionary War era documents before last night.
He's not a crypto fan:
Last month at the Econ Club of Chicago, he told the audience that he doesn’t trade in cryptos because of its “regulatory uncertainty,” adding [he]“wished all this passion and energy that went into crypto was directed toward making the US stronger.”
But as this chart shows, the correlation is poor (bottom panel). Of course, this look backwards so it could be an inflation hedge going forward.
But something else correlates better ...
Two charts below.
One (single line) is a standard price chart of ETH. The other (two line) is the Bloomberg Payments Company stock index (red) with the ETH price PLOTTED INVERSELY.
When shown like this, they do seem to move with each other.
Below is the correlation (bottom panel) between payments and ETH (plotted inversely in top panel).
The correlation is getting more negative over time.
This mean the relationship between higher ETH prices and lower payment stocks, or an inverse relationship, is growing.
Mr. Biden met each candidate separately for interviews on Nov. 4, and he was joined in the Oval Office for those meetings with only one other adviser, National Economic Council Director Brian Deese, according to people familiar with the matter.
Each meeting was scheduled for one hour, though Ms. Brainard’s ran slightly over the allotted time, one of these people said. Some people familiar with the matter said Ms. Brainard’s meeting went better than expected.
Yet another story that paints Brainard in a better light than Powell.
But the betting markets are still steadfast that Powell is 70-ish% to get renominated.
Recall I think it is
Someone tell the betting markets! They think Powell gets the nod and Brainard gets a consolation prize.
3/3 Biden stalling on decision is the latest ever, Joe Stiglitz wants Powell out, and we get stories about Brainard, not Powell.
This is not the narrative one would expect to see if Powell's probability of getting re-nominated was truly believed to be 75%. project-syndicate.org/commentary/fed…
Even though the cash bond market was closed today, the interest rate futures were open and had a fairly sizeable decline. Not like yesterday's sell-off, but they did continue yesterday's declines with even more losses.
Bond futures were off about 1/2 point.
Most interesting (to me, at least) was fed fund futures tanked AGAIN today.
This show the implied yields out to May 2023. Or, where the market is pricing in the funds rate out to May 2023.
Wonky chart alert ...
This chart shows the shifting of the forward curve from last Friday (red) to yesterday (orange) to today (blue).
In the last month, markets are pricing in more aggressive tightening of monetary policy across the globe, sending short rates higher. This move accelerated in the last week. Is this signaling the end of the “transitory” inflation era?
A thread to explain
The last two weeks have seen short-term interest rates around the globe shoot higher, as the following series of charts show.
This trend is most acute in Australia where it appears yield curve control is blowing up. The Reserve Bank of Australia cannot maintain its target of 0.10% (blue line).
The S&P 500’s outperformance over the Russell 2000 is reaching historic extremes, something that typically only happens in a bear market. Investors have redirected government stimulus money into the stock market.
A thread to explain
The next chart starts on March 15 and shows the rolling return of the S&P 500 (blue) and the Russell 2000 (orange). Since this date, the S&P 500 is up 15.26% while the Russell 2000 is down 2.72%.
So, in the last 161 trading days, the S&P 500 has outperformed the Russell 2000 by 17.98%. This is the biggest outperformance by the S&P 500 over the Russell 2000 in 20 years!
1/6 What is the bond market signaling? And how to read it? A thread to detail.
This chart shows YTD 10-yr total return each year since 1973. Gray lines show past years’ returns, while the blue line shows this year’s returns. Through October 21, the 10-year has returned -5.60%.
2/6 Only 3 years posted worse total returns through Oct 21 – 2009 (worst), 1999, and 1994. 2021 is already one of the worst years in bond market history.
How much pain in the bond market does the transitory crowd demand before they acknowledge the market is signaling a problem?
3/6 Bond market volatility is also beginning to show signs of concern, as the next chart shows.
What causes this run on stablecoins that you worry about? And it seems your concern is they will exposure weakness in the current financial system, so those weaknesses must be protected, not that stablecoin growth means it should be corrected.
You wrote: "History shows very recently that the might get into trouble if they experience a wave of redemptions than they can't honor the dollar peg, and might feel compelled to dump a whole pile of CP on the market."
Sounds like the problem is CP, not stablecoins ...
What history are you referring to? Seem like USDT has spent most of its life NOT holding its peg (green), yet, the growth of stablecoins has not been bothered by this at all.
The Los Angeles and Long Beach ports collectively unload just under one million containers a month. For the last year, they have been running at/near a record pace.
In other words, they are running as fast as they can. The problem is they are at their limit.
The much-heralded solution is to run the ports 24/7. The problem is the Long Beach terminals are already 24/7 and the LA terminals are already running 18 hours a day. These added hours at LA are only going to increase unloadings by 2%-3%. This is not going to matter much.