I've gotten really interested in the work of Carlota Perez @CarlotaPrzPerez, who is a prof of technology & socio-economic development. h/t to @alexdanco and @jneumann for citing her in your writings.
Who is she & why isn't she more famous?!
Quick synopsis of her thoughts:
Who is she & why isn't she more famous?!
Quick synopsis of her thoughts:
1) There have been 5 eras of technological innovation in the past centuries: 1) Industrial revolution, 2) Age of steel / rail, 3) Age of electricity / engr, 4) Age of oil / auto / mass prod, 5) IT age.
We are in the IT age right now.
We are in the IT age right now.
2) Within each of these tech eras, there have been 4 stages of growth. Eruption phase, Frenzy phase, Synergy phase, and Maturity phase.
3) In the eruption phase - you have a few core technologies that start. It's slow, because it takes a while to fully build out. And unclear what the ROI will be.
Core tech incl things like canals. Or the railroad. Or the browser.
Core tech incl things like canals. Or the railroad. Or the browser.
4) In the Frenzy phase, you see the dev of products that ride the wave of these core technologies. Investors come in and pour $$ into things that piggyback off these core technologies. E.g. Google, FB, Amazon all piggyback off the web browser.
5) The Synergy phase is where things start to fall apart. Innovation often removes jobs, because things are now done more efficiently & the frenzy phrase pushes this core tech into many industries, so there is growing socioeconomic unrest.
6) We see these issues today with the gig economy.
This is also when there starts to be too much $$ being poured into investing - and $$ isn't put to use well.
This is also when there starts to be too much $$ being poured into investing - and $$ isn't put to use well.
7) Lastly, in the Maturity phase, all that can be "milked" out of the initial core technology is basically done / saturated. E.g. the app store now is quite crowded. Every website and mobile that could possibly be built has more or less been built on some level.
8) Today we are in the Synergy phase. We are close to saturation on websites & mobile apps that are differentiated and can be big. There are still some things that can be squeezed out of the browser - such as no-code tools or whatnot. But the low hanging fruit is gone.
9) This isn't to say this is the end of tech, but to keep the IT era going, you need new core technologies to repeat these stages with. Maybe things like VR. Or Arduinos and the Raspberry Pi. Or in blockchain. Or LIDAR. All of these are in stage 1 - not much built on these.
10) In South East Asia or other emerging markets, unlike in the US, there is still opportunity to "milk" the browser or the app store, where infrastructure like payments isn't quite perfect.
11) You can be a big business either bldg the core tech itself or building on top of core tech. E.g. JD Rockefeller was in oil refinery but he really piggybacked on the railroad that developed through Cleveland. And the railroad tycoons themselves also made lots of money
12) More examples: Apple and MSFT are good examples of "core tech" -- they were the first operating systems and spawned an ecosystem of software. Apple did it again with the iPhone spawning smart phones.
13) Google and Amazon both ride on the browser as a core tech that was distributed to billions of people. They were there at the start of the browser. Being early mattered. But they too had to spawn their own ecosystems to continue growth.
14) I think @CarlotaPrzPerez 's framework is spot on. What is a core tech that you can develop, promote and spawn an ecosystem around? Or what is a new core tech that is emerging that you can quickly ride the wave on and spawn an ecosystem around?
15) And lastly, if you are developing core tech, how will you survive long enough to attract $ and attn when it's not that big yet. And if you are riding on a core tech, how can you make sure you are not too late?
