I will be on @FoxBusiness at 4:15pm ET today to talk about the impact of coronavirus on US-China relations, and the prospects for reopening the US economy.
I was asked on @FoxBusiness about reports the US is investigating whether the coronavirus originated in a Chinese lab.
My response was that I'm not a scientist, so I don't know, but this question is getting raised in the context of an already heated debate over the direction of US policy towards China, and we should all be wary of seizing on whatever theory suits our preferred narrative.
I noted that General Milley indicated the majority of evidence suggested a natural origin, but that he wasn't ruling out other possibilities. I don't know enough to say otherwise, but we should wait on the facts.
When asked about what takeaways we can take from China's economic downturn, about when we can reopen the US economy, I noted that in Wuhan it took about a month from the peak to when they felt confident about lifting lockdown restrictions.
New York is probably at its peak right now, with other parts of the country still not there yet. So mid-May is probably a realistic timeframe for looking to get back to normal.
I stressed there are two key things that will determine the economic impact of these US shutdowns: relief and testing.
The longer it takes to get relief checks to businesses and families, the greater the danger they will fall into economic difficulties that will make a recovery longer and harder.
We call it "stimulus" but these relief checks are not so much about stimulating the economy as holding it together, and reducing the number of pieces we have to pick up afterwards.
I didn't get a chance to elaborate on testing, so I'll do it here. To many of you who follow me, it will sound familiar.
Without extensive testing, we are flying blind, and the only tool we have is the sledgehammer of broad shutdowns. The most we test, the more visibility we have, and the more options we have in getting people back to school and work and regular life safely.
Testing is also critical to being prepared for a possible second wave this Fall, if that happens, with options that are better and more flexible than the ones we had to go with the first time around.
There are limits to the amount of detail we can go into on any of these complex topics in a short TV interview - it would have been great to talk more about supply chain shifts, WHO, and the broader US-China relationship - but I want to thank @FoxBusiness for having me on.
