Share this page!

Enter URL or ID to Unroll

You can paste full URL like: https://x.com/threadreaderapp/status/1644127596119195649
or just the ID like: 1644127596119195649

How to get URL link on X (Twitter) App

  1. On the Twitter thread, click on or icon on the bottom
  2. Click again on or Share Via icon
  3. Click on Copy Link to Tweet
  4. Paste it above and click "Unroll Thread"!
  5. More info at Twitter Help
Patrick Chovanec Profile picture
Patrick Chovanec
@prchovanec
Private sector economic advisor. Author of the newly released book “Cleared for the Option: A Year Learning to Fly”. https://t.co/vhcQrJq9n3. #avgeek
eDo Profile picture Kochsuchers Profile picture @AlgoCompSynth@universeodon.com by znmeb Profile picture kballweg Profile picture Carlos Fernicola Profile picture 14 subscribed
Apr 29 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
In re-reading all my old books about China, I’m often surprised by where I originally learned about certain things that stuck in my mind. I have to say, I’ve found several of the books by Harrison Salisbury - mostly now out of print - invaluable. amazon.com/gp/aw/d/038072…
Apr 26 • 17 tweets • 3 min read
I'll share my below-the-hood analysis of the GDP numbers here. Headline real GDP growth for the U.S. came in at +1.6% (annualized q/q) in 1Q24, lower than expected. That's the lower quarterly growth rate since 2Q22. Image The composition of real GDP growth in Q1 was: +1.6 = +1.7 consumption +0.4 business investment -0.4 inventories +0.5 housing +0.2 government spending -0.9 net exports.
Mar 30 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
As a former Republican, now Independent, and still WAY more conservative than most of you, I’m going to respond to these assertions one by one. 1) This is true, but only when you artificially limit it to "MSM". Which means ignoring the #1 cable news channel, talk radio, Epoch Times, and host of other podcast, etc. that have increasingly eclipsed legacy media outlets as sources of news and opinion.
Mar 29 • 12 tweets • 2 min read
Why did the Allies nickname the Germans "Huns" in World War I? Many believe it was inspired by German atrocities in Belgium, and that's true as far as it goes, but there was a specific reason why "Huns" was the reference that stuck ... In the 1890s, Kaiser Wilhelm II developed an obsession over the so-called "Yellow Peril", the racial bugbear that the Chinese and Japanese would unite to invade the Western world, either by arms or by mass migration ...
Mar 18 • 16 tweets • 6 min read
Visiting Daniel Webster in front of the New Hampshire State Capitol in Concord today. Image The other guy in front of the New Hampshire Capitol is President Franklin Pierce … Image
Feb 23 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
I'm going to tell you a little story about Trump and the people around him. Back in around 210 BC, a nomadic people called the Xiongnu lived on the northern borders of China. Historians think they may have been the ancestors of the Huns.
Feb 16 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
My problem with today's GOP is only partly rooted in policy on trade, immigration, or NATO. It's mainly that the party has been taken over by such cowardly, pathetic, dishonest, and nasty human beings. Even when I agree with them, I find them repulsive. In high school, my father used to take a group of my classmates and me to dinners hosted by a conservative political organization in Chicago, where we listened to some of the most prominent speakers of the day. Agree or disagree with them, they were an impressive lot.
Feb 10 • 38 tweets • 6 min read
There are so many things to say to this, so this is going to take a few tweets. First of all, the question almost certainly wasn't framed like this. But I guess you could reframe it and fairly ask "Should Article 5 be contingent on NATO members meeting military spending targets?"
Feb 9 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
The most interesting - and important - thing I notice about the Biden competency debate is that nobody watches entire interviews or press conferences anymore. They watch 10-second clips. And they point to whatever clip validates their existing opinion. Biden's age as a valid concern aside, I'm far more interested in whether a President can hold a coherent policy discussion over 30 minutes than avoid a stumble over 30 seconds.
Jan 29 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
I am by nature an optimistic person. But the dumbing down of this country has me on the brink of despair. It's not a disagreement over "issues". I wish it was. It's more like the moral and intellectual quality of people in public life has fallen off a cliff - and I don't think I'm romanticizing the past. If they're not morons, they have to pretend to be morons.
Jan 27 • 12 tweets • 2 min read
"Were it not for Guan Zhong, today we would be wearing our hair untied and would fasten our clothes on the left [like the barbarians]." - Confucius Guan Zhong was a talented official who backed the wrong candidate in a battle over succession in the state of Qi, in 686 BC. When his prince lost, he was excepted to commit suicide.
Nov 14, 2023 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
The conventional wisdom at the start, among the US military, was that it couldn't possibly work, and that war with the Soviets over Berlin was all but inevitable. They weren't enthused about this, btw, they were distraught.
Nov 12, 2023 • 14 tweets • 3 min read
There seems to be some confusion that Trump was referring to the Opium War. Whether he really understands the history or not (probably not), he was not. He was referring to Mao's brutal suppression of opium addiction after the 1949 Revolution. A little history: In the late 18th Century, Britain faced a problem. It wanted to import tons of tea from China (the only country which grew it at the time) but the Chinese didn't want to buy anything Britain produced, so the British had to pay in a huge outflow of silver.
Nov 9, 2023 • 19 tweets • 7 min read
100 years ago today (November 8-9, 1923), the Nazi Party, led in person by Adolf Hitler, unsuccessfully attempted to seize power in Munich in what became known as the Beer Hall Putsch. #100yearsago Image Hitler believed that hyperinflation (which had destroyed many people's savings) and the renewed French occupation of the industrial Ruhr had laid the foundation for a coup similar to Mussolini's seizure of power in Italy the previous year. Image
Oct 28, 2023 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
Speaking of having a “Biblical worldview”, especially in politics, seriously underestimates the tensions within the Bible that intentionally leave us with no easy answers. In other words, the Bible is to be struggled with. It is not a recipe book.
Oct 23, 2023 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
When Trump was first elected in 2016, I remember passing around a brief memo that laid out four possibilities, or historical analogies: The first was Chester Arthur, a venal and extremely limited man who rose to the occasion and proved a surprisingly good President.
Oct 12, 2023 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
You could fill a very large bookshelf with books about the Arab-Israeli conflict. But if someone were to ask me where to begin, I would offer them the following shortlist: To start, "O Jerusalem" by Larry Collins and Dominique Lapierre. A narrative, non-fiction, and in my opinion even-handed account of the 1948 war that established the state of Israel. Highly readable. amazon.com/Jerusalem-Larr…
Oct 11, 2023 • 22 tweets • 2 min read
I have a Descartes joke, but I doubt it exists. I have a Socrates joke, but I question its assumptions.
Oct 4, 2023 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
For those who are interested, let me tell a little history story to explain the real (as opposed to imaginary) risks to the USD, and why I'm not just brushing them aside here. This is the story of the post-war British pound. During World War II, the British were under immense economic and financial stress. They needed to import food and war supplies from abroad, yet quickly ran out of means to pay for them in gold or currencies besides the pound.
Oct 1, 2023 • 13 tweets • 2 min read
1) I’m not sure this is a serious question, but I’ll try to answer it seriously (thread). 2) First of all, they don’t. The US has spent $333 billion on border security since 2003, and Biden is proposing to spend a record $25 billion in 2024. Agencies enforcing border and immigration security employ over 84,000 people.
Sep 23, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
He’s not wrong. In fact, it’s a pretty accurate analogy - the US view of India (like NATO-member Turkey), is one of distrust and utility. But I’m less sympathetic to the view that it’s entirely unfair. (I’d love to see India become a closer, more trusted partner). One problem is that India and the US share little common history, only mutual incomprehension. Ironically, China and the US actually share much more history - they have long been fascinated with and connected to each other, and this drives the relationship, for better or worse.