Some great thought-provoking responses to this thread, so a quick follow-up on 3 related issues (/1)
A.Resiliency =/= domestic autonomy (@sarahbauerle)
B.What role for firms? (@LogTechEric, @sarahbauerle, @HeikoBorchert, @jeromelarosch)
C.Forums for coordination (@TGehrke_)
A.Resiliency =/= domestic autonomy (@sarahbauerle)
B.What role for firms? (@LogTechEric, @sarahbauerle, @HeikoBorchert, @jeromelarosch)
C.Forums for coordination (@TGehrke_)
On A, I think I mostly agree w/ Sarah’s comments here. Certainly true that foreign production isn’t nec more vulnerable, & domestic production isn’t nec more resilient. /2
I see two dimensions in which states are reasserting autonomy: specific worry about dependence on China, & broader worry about being at mercy of ‘global markets’, and seeking more hands-on steering of globalization. Neither of these nec mean bringing production ‘home’. 3/
I also want to do more thinking through some of the conceptual differences between ‘national autonomy’ vs ‘sovereign autonomy’ vs ‘strategic autonomy’ (the term EU is using) – all of which are distinct from simple domestic production/onshoring 4/
On B, firms are absolutely going to be a big part of whatever happens here. Firms are the key decisionmakers – though they make those choices within a preference structure that gov’ts have the power to alter (through sanctions, taxes, subsidies, etc) 5/
Perhaps less obviously, firms are also key sources of information that gov’ts will need to make well grounded policy decisions. (I would argue this is partially bc gov’ts have underinvested in gathering and analyzing this information themselves, leaving them reliant on firms.) 6/
What form/structure firm participation takes is a big outstanding question, but we can be confident they’ll be involved and will likely be pretty influential. I worry there’s a high risk of capture, either by specific firms or more generally by corporate-friendly interests. 7/
On C), what forums are best suited for these discussions – and whether a new forum is needed – I’m not sure I have strong priors at the moment. 9/
There are 3 levels of coordination that might be valuable: among industrialized allies, to coordinate strategy; a broader global forum that brings together ‘home’ and ‘host’ countries, to match potential supply and demand of industrial production; and between US and China. 10/
Among allies, discussions could happen at places like G7 or OECD, as Sarah suggests – this is probably easiest. Really just need open communication channels, and perhaps regularly scheduled (tele)conferences - I doubt anything more formal is needed. 11/
A couple words on US-China, as some might be surprised to see this included – if whole point is trying to extricate supply chains from China, why would we coordinate with them?? (And same logic might apply to EU-China, Japan-China, etc – but don’t know those cases as well) 13/
But of course, as any marriage counselor knows, divorces require a *ton* of coordination. (To push the analogy perhaps too far, this is especially true when you’re forced to share custody over difficult ‘children’ – climate change, pandemics, etc.) 14/
My colleague @thomaswright08 has also used the analogy of US-Soviet arms control talks as a potential model for overseeing and managing a strategic, deliberate, partial decoupling of the US and Chinese economies, in a way that reassures both sides and reduces vulnerabilities. /15
More generally, the ability to effectively coordinate with strategic competitors is a huge part of global politics, and particularly important in eras of multipolar, great power competition. 16/
The on again / off again US-China ‘Strategic and Economic Dialogue’ (and its various iterations) is probably the best forum to house such discussions, though I admittedly have lost track under Trump on whether the S&ED is currently on or off. 17/
Summing up, the key point is that a desire to strengthen domestic autonomy over global supply chains will require more effort/attention/resources on int’l coordination – even with competitors. 18/
And the fact that Trump admin has done so badly on coordinating even with allies – not telling Europe about the COVID travel ban before it was announced, haphazardly trying to prevent 3M from selling masks to Canada and Mexico, etc – doesn’t bode well here. 19/end.
