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New York Times: 'Coronavirus Testing Needs to Triple Before the U.S. Can Reopen, Experts Say.' Says average positive rate for testing in US is 20 percent, which 'researchers say is too high.' Needs to be reduced before re-opening is possible. 1/10 ow.ly/4PE750zhRLE
NYT says before US can re-open, testing positive rate needs to get down to about 10 percent, which is maximum rate recommended by World Health Organization. And that will require far, far more testing than is going on today. 2/10
Because positive rate is 20 percent, NYT, citing Harvard researchers, says 'United States cannot safely reopen unless it conducts more than three times the number of coronavirus tests it is currently administering over the next month.' 3/10
Triple the current testing? That could mean a long time before US can re-open. But one wonders: What's with this 'United States' stuff? Are there states? Is the positive rate the same in all of them? 4/10
No. NYT cites just one state's positive rate: New Jersey, with rate near 50 percent. What about others? NYT doesn't say. Cites COVID Tracking Project, which also doesn't give state-by-state positive rates but does give raw numbers. 5/10 covidtracking.com/data
And guess what? Not all states are in as bad a shape as New Jersey. Not even close. In fact, lots of states have positive test rates at or below 10 percent, which is WHO standard cited by Times. Just take a look at these approximate numbers: 6/10
Alaska 3 percent; Arizona 9; Arkansas 7; California (close but not quite there with 10.9 percent); Florida (also close at 10.3); Hawaii 2; Idaho 9.9; Iowa (close at 10.7); Kansas 10; Kentucky 8; Maine 5; Minnesota 5; Mississippi 9.8; Missouri 9.8; Montana 4; ... 7/10
Nebraska 8; New Hampshire 10; New Mexico 4; North Carolina 8; North Dakota 3; Oklahoma 7; Oregon 5; Tennessee 7; Texas (close at 10.2); Utah 5; Vermont 6; Washington 8; West Virginia 4; Wisconsin 8; Wyoming 4. 8/10
So: 24 states below WHO's 10 percent standard. Five others right at 10 or within a point. New York Times relies on national number to suggest re-opening can't happen until much more testing to hit standard nationally... 9/10
But nearly half the states are already there. Yes, New York and New Jersey are in terrible shape. Others have serious problem. But it's a big country. 50 states. No one-size-fits-all national policy will work for all of them. 10/10
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