“Take the probability of loss times the amount of possible loss from the probability of gain times the amount of possible gain. That is what we’re trying to do. It’s imperfect, but that’s what it’s all about.”
You live in Florida and your friend asks you to go to the beach with a group of friends tomorrow.
Should you use Buffett's formula in making your decision?
How does uncertainty about probabilities alter the size of the margin of safety in making your decision ?
What margin of safety is appropriate given uncertainty about COVID-19? For example: google.com/amp/s/thehill.…
"Proper decisions about going to the beach with friends right now given COVID-19 are like engineering. You need a margin of safety." Tren
"Listen, business is easy. If you’ve got a low downside and a big upside, you go do it. If you’ve got a big downside and a small upside, you run away. The only time you have any work to do is when you have a big downside and a big upside.”