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Ecological And Climate Catastrophe Cannot Be Avoided.

It's happening now.

- Ecosystems are collapsing
- Pollinators are being wiped out

The future?

With emergency emissions cuts and good luck: 2.5C chaos.

With moderate emissions cuts and bad luck: 5C and possible extinction.
Some scientists still think we could achieve 2 to 2.5C, others suggest we're set for 3 to 4C.

The risk of extinction increases as the Earth is heated up (direct impacts like food security etc, or indirect eg nuclear war)

See thread including the reply:
I would guess we'll be at ~1.7C or more no matter what by 2030 (1750 baseline).

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Ben See
@ClimateBen
1/ New IPCC climate models suggest that even with massive emissions reductions, we'll hit catastrophic 1.5C in the 2020s, and then horrific 2C by 2030 - 2040.

We must have immediate emergency emissions cuts through extraordinary government intervention to stay below 3C.

THREAD
2/ 'Only one socio-economic scenario limits warming to 2C' :

'Even then, the scenario calls for extreme mitigation efforts, and we will still likely exceed the target..warming over 2C before cooling down only if drastic geoengineering measures are taken'.vice.com/en_in/article/…
3/ These new models suggest higher climate sensitivity than previously thought. This would have profound 'societal ramifications.'

There is real debate over climate sensitivity.

This study shows the 'possibility that ECS is indeed high in the real world'.agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.10…
Read 11 tweets
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Ben See
@ClimateBen
1/ Major cities may start to become virtually uninhabitable due to extreme weather as early as 2030.
2/ 'The world is on track to reach dangerous levels of global warming much sooner than expected'.

'researchers have developed a “global energy tracker” which... points to a 2C rise by 2030'.

From 2016:
amp.theguardian.com/environment/20…

3/ see this thread for more details:

Read 4 tweets
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Ben See
@ClimateBen
Thanks for stating your opinion, Steve, though had you offered a set of alternative dates - 2040, 2060, 2080-2090, for example - it would have been much more constructive.

Several metres of sea level rise by the 2090s looks increasingly likely.
👇
cnbc.com/2020/04/15/cli…
Agreed?
A World Bank study predicted that 40 percent of Bangkok may be engulfed by water as early as 2030, so my first projection appears fairly reasonable, I would suggest.

aljazeera.com/news/2019/09/t…
100s of millions displaced by 2035 may seem extreme, however, here we see the possibility of 1.4 billion displaced by 2060. Perhaps 200 million by 2035 is not so ridiculous.

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