Thread by @saifedean

Dr. John Ioannidis Announces Results of COVID-19 Serology Study via @YouTube

Now we are getting independent testing, it's clear fatality rates are nowhere near as high as the panickers warned.
There was no reason to believe they were high except the astonishingly dumb assumption that death rates among the sick apply to everyone.

https://twitter.com/saifedean/status/1242470647638392834

Would experts have been as cavalier about a global shutdown if it ruined their livelihoods, as it does for billions? If their kids were hungry now, would they still think the (very dumb) uncertainty around the fatality rate warrants the precaution of utter economic devastation?

Yes, there is still a real risk to the virus. But there are many other risks in life, like starvation & destitution. Billions of young & healthy people are at very low risk from the virus, but at very high risk of starvation. Why shouldn't they make their own trade-offs?

Your wealth & credulity mean that WHO data is enough to convince you to stay home for a year. Good for you, but it's criminal to coerce others into acting like you, because you take away their ability to make their own trade-offs, which can compromise their chances of survival.

How to reduce your risk of dying from a virus:

1- Sunshine
2- Good food, which isn't cheap
3- Movement and exercise, preferably outdoors

Staying home reduces your ability to do all of these, compromising your health.

You cannot improve people's health by limiting their freedom

Just because you have numbers that make you *think* you understand how a phenomenon works does NOT mean you can improve people's lives by controlling them.

You've discovered nothing new, just the same stupid old ideas destroyed by Hayek decades ago

mises.at/static/literat…