1/ Thread on Sweden, #coronavirus, the mathematician John von Neumann and the war that didn’t occur
2/ Von Neumann helped invent, among other things, the modern computer, game theory and the atom bomb. He predicted WWII, the Holocaust, that France would be overrun quickly, that the US would enter the war when UK struggled...
3/ One of his predictions, however, was that there would be a catastrophic nuclear war with the Soviet Union before 1950. He advocated pre-emptive war-a massive nuclear strike on Russia before it could get the bomb
4/ Russia got the bomb. There was no war. Von Neumann, one of the smartest people who has ever lived, was wrong. His utilitarian calculation–lives lost now Vs lives lost in a hypothetical future, horribly flawed
5/ The Swedes too have gambled, making a similar utilitarian calculation of lives lost now Vs hypothetical lives lost in future. But their assumptions may have been flawed (eg a staggering 25% of Sweden’s population are recent immigrants) bit.ly/3cw78Oa
6/ All we know right now is that #covid is very contagious and deadly, particularly for the elderly, and there is no cure. We don’t know if a small or large proportion of the country has had it, and if immunity to the disease lasts or does not
7/ The Danes, who locked down early, have a saying often misattributed to Niels Bohr: "It’s difficult to make predictions, especially about the future." I fear this will prove apt in this case.
8/ Perhaps the Swedes have got it right. I suspect we’ll know soon enough. Covid multiplies exponentially and spreads quietly. Many who are contagious don't show symptoms. It’s true there are no easy answers
9/I hope I’m wrong but Sweden appears to have pursued a grim utilitarian calculus, with the compliance of its people. The most vulnerable may end up paying the price. The past haunts the present bit.ly/2xGcGab
Hope that clarifies my earlier tweet. You may disagree. I couldn't help but feel the historical resonances
