First of all, no evidence is offered that the advisor is correct about public attitudes outside the tri-state area. Indeed, Haberman cites polling evidence that suggests the opposite.
Second of all, it is entirely possible that the advisor is correct. If Trump and his campaign get behind the Astroturf protests, one would expect partisan cues to trigger an uptick in support within Trump’s base for re-opening the economy. 3/x
But — and this is the most important point — It. Doesn’t. Matter. Trump can machinate all he wants to rally his base. None of these tactics will help him beyond his base, and he needs more than 40 percent of the country to win re-election. 4/x
The fundamental facts about Trump’s re-election is that he’s trying to do it in the midst of a cratering economy, a unified opposition, and no practical scenario in which things return to normal before November. 5/x nytimes.com/2020/04/18/hea…
The political press seems reluctant to say these things out loud. And I get it. Trump surprised everyone in 2016. Incumbents seeking re-election have only lost three times in the past century. In normal times with a normal president, Trump would be the favorite this fall. 6/x
It’s not normal times. And this president is about as far from normal as you can get, a fact that is discussed here at length. 7/x indiebound.org/book/978022671…
If you read press coverage about campaign tactics from here on in, remember that while it matters a little, it doesn’t matter nearly as much as two brute facts: a) This election will be a referendum about Trump during an economic freeefall; and b) Biden is a generic Democrat. 8/x
In conclusion, all of the Trump campaign’s machinations are like trying to piss into a gale-force wind. Which is why I wrote this for today. #fin
washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/0…
washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/0…
P.S.: Anyone who interprets this thread as an attack on @maggieNYT is missing the point. Her story was reported accurately, as are all her stories. The issue is whether this is *the big story* right now, and that’s her editors’ call, not hers.
