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"We know 9 out of 10 [covid] deaths occur in hospital" — Yvonne Doyle of @PHE_uk

But we know that data is highly suspect.

Nursing homes account for 50% or more of covid deaths in Belgium, Canada, France, Ireland, Norway.

Main reason UK % is lower is bad data, not ground truth.
Those figures come from this ongoing work by @AdelinaCoHe and co, tracking covid deaths in nursing homes around the world ltccovid.org/2020/04/12/mor…
We’ve reported on this ourselves:

@ChrisGiles_, @gillplimmer1 & @federicacocco showed this week that while we’ve seen a huge spike in UK care home deaths, they’re simply not being recorded as covid deaths ft.com/content/9d6b46…
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More from @jburnmurdoch see all

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John Burn-Murdoch
@jburnmurdoch
NEW: Fri 24 April update of coronavirus trajectories

Daily deaths
• Still too early to say if US has peaked
• Looks like UK has
• But descents look much slower than ascents
• Brazil 📈
• Successes in dark blue: Australia, Norway, Austria

Live charts ft.com/coronavirus-la…
Why do I say UK daily deaths may have peaked?

Here’s week-on-week change in daily deaths.

This gets rid of weekly reporting patterns and asks, are more people dying than at same point last week?

In UK, blue bars mean we’re now seeing *fewer* deaths than same day last week.
This set of charts remains good for tracking whether or not a country has reached its peak etc, but we’re now also tracking total excess mortality.

My colleague @ChrisGiles_ estimates UK excess deaths linked to covid far exceed daily reported numbers
Read 25 tweets
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John Burn-Murdoch
@jburnmurdoch
NEW: Thurs 23 April update of coronavirus trajectories

Daily deaths:
• Still too early to say if US has peaked
• Looks like UK has
• But descents appear to be much slower than ascents
• Successes in dark blue: Australia, Norway, Austria

Live charts ft.com/coronavirus-la…
Why do I say UK daily deaths may have peaked?

Here’s week-on-week change in daily deaths.

This gets rid of weekly reporting patterns and asks, are more people dying than at same point last week?

In UK, blue bars mean we’re now seeing *fewer* deaths than same day last week.
This set of charts remains good for tracking whether or not a country has reached its peak etc, but we’re now also tracking total excess mortality.

My colleague @ChrisGiles_ estimates UK excess deaths linked to covid far exceed daily reported numbers
Read 25 tweets
Profile picture
John Burn-Murdoch
@jburnmurdoch
NEW: Wed 22 April update of coronavirus trajectories

Daily deaths
• Still too early to say if US has peaked
• UK daily deaths have peaked
• But descents look much slower than ascents
• Successes in dark blue: Australia, Norway, Austria

Live charts ft.com/coronavirus-la…
Why do I say UK daily deaths have peaked?

New chart: week-on-week change in daily deaths.

This gets rid of weekly reporting patterns and asks, are more people dying than at same point last week?

In UK, blue bars mean we’re now seeing *fewer* deaths than same day last week.
This set of charts remains good for tracking whether or not a country has reached its peak etc, but we’re now also tracking total excess mortality.

My colleague @ChrisGiles_ estimates UK excess deaths linked to covid far exceed daily reported numbers
Read 24 tweets

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