Corona Crisis Week 6:
For the week ending April 18th the GTA’s real estate market saw a decline in sales similar to the previous week, down 71% over last year 1/
For the week ending April 18th the GTA’s real estate market saw a decline in sales similar to the previous week, down 71% over last year 1/
New listings also saw a sharp decline, down 64% for the second week in a row 2/
The months of inventory based on sales for the previous 30 days moved up to 2.9 months 3/
But in volatile markets when there are big changes in sales volumes over a 30 day period, using the current week’s sales as “the new normal” and converting it to a monthly sales estimate amplifies the volatility and gives us a better picture of real time trends 4/
When we do that, we see that MOI surged to over 4.5 months the week ending April 11, but has dipped to just under 4 months last week. 5/
More important than the MOI at any given point in time is its rate of change over time. When it’s declining rapidly, the fear of course is that 4 MOI may become 6, then 8 and before we know it there is significant downward pressure on prices. 6/
But if MOI stabilizes at around 4 over the nest couple of weeks it will suggest that, at least in the short term, there is some stability in the market. 7/
Even though sales and listings are down, the rapid deceleration (ie. sharp rise in inventory) would have come to an end in the short term which would be positive news for anyone interested in seeing some stability in house prices. /
