Kim Jong Un’s health status is difficult to report on and corroborate because of the regime’s information environment and the sensitivity of such close-hold information about the top leader. 1/
Reliability of the info depends on access, while corroboration would boost confidence level of an assessment. So having one source doesn’t mean that we should ignore it but it should be weighed with what we know and appropriately caveated. 2/
ROK and Ch government downplaying of the reports does not mean that they have more access to Kim. Often they too are scrambling for info. 3/
Also absence of any unusual activity in North Korea does not mean the absence of the unusual. The regime is stovepiped for a reason—it’s to ensure that the top leader controls the information. Information is power. That’s why the Kim family tries to dominate it. 4/
If anything, business as usual in NK would point to the resilience of regime mechanisms of control. 5/
I caution against uninformed speculation. But even though we don’t know exactly what is going on with Kim’s health doesn’t mean we should “calm down” or “relax”. Not knowing doesn’t mean the situation is unanalyze-able. 6/
Rather this is a good opportunity to remind ourselves that Kim isn’t as omnipotent as he wants us and his people to think, and the outsized importance of this single individual’s health on NK stability and regional security. 7/
I also have thoughts on what Kim probably thinks about succession. But for later. 8/8
