NK’s recent actions and stmts are worrisome. Many have rightly pointed out how Kim is trying to manufacture tension & so far doing it in a nonlethal, but dramatic way. They’ve also said how we’ve seen this kind of behavior from NK b4.

Let me explain what this says about Kim. 1/ Yes, we have seen this before. NK acts aggressively, turns on a charm offensive to defuse tension and mitigate punishment, pushes boundaries of international tolerance, and creates a new normal. 2/

I’ve been seeing some comments on this platform & elsewhere sugg that the CIA as an institution is resp for US inability to make progress w/NK.

Let me share a few thoughts about what it’s like to be a CIA analyst in the 21st cent, esp on a high profile, hard target like NK. 1/ It is intense: the White House scrutiny and attention, the unbelievable amount of prep required for NSC meetings, constant flow of taskings from CIA and DNI seniors, not to mention the long hours, birthdays and celebrations missed, and holidays & trips hijacked by NK actions....2

As part of the launch of “Becoming Kim Jong Un” (penguinrandomhouse.com/books/604727/b…) I’ve written a short piece for @ambassadorbrief, highlighting some key points about Kim’s personality, motivations, & the drivers for his actions 1/

ambassadorsbrief.com/posts/mgRHNSK6… Kim Jong Un is bigger, badder, and bolder than his father or grandfather—with a higher risk appetite and potentially more ambitious goals. One manifestation of this is his acceleration of nuclear weapons development, despite the costs. 2/

Today is book launch day!

Please judge this book by its cover. 1/ When the fabulous design team @penguinrandom proposed this cover, my heart started to pound because I knew my editor and my team really understood *exactly* what I wanted to do with this book. 2/

Kim Jong Un’s health status is difficult to report on and corroborate because of the regime’s information environment and the sensitivity of such close-hold information about the top leader. 1/ Reliability of the info depends on access, while corroboration would boost confidence level of an assessment. So having one source doesn’t mean that we should ignore it but it should be weighed with what we know and appropriately caveated. 2/