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Spoke with some CEO friends in China yesterday.

public health:
- most people are comfortable resuming life without participating high-risk activities (but people are getting more relaxed every day)
- people recognize prolonged (1+ year) social distancing unsustainable.
- people recognize that prolonged border control in China is going to be problematic, as most other countries are on track to get herd immunity sooner than China.
- working age people in China more fearful of COVID19 than average folks here in the US
Economic outlook:
- people recognize export-led growth has ended. domestic demand is on everyone's focus
- credit is super tight for SME
- everybody is looking for way to get government investment and to make money off the government.
- private household purchasing power is largely sucked away by the housing market and is expected to continue
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More from @Barton_options see all

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Barton
@Barton_options
1/ COVID19 impact on public health, market, election (April edition)

TL,DR: public-health crisis over by Nov for working age people. fatality for 65+ bad & having a long tail into 2021.

market continues its V recovery

reopening helps young voters, hurts old voters.
2/ public health: recent serology data suggest infection rate among 64 and younger appears to approach 4-12% in states first hit by COVID19. (e.g. NY, CA) It is probably to see ~50-60% infection rate by Nov.

States not hard-hit are working hard to catch up via re-opening.
3/ public health: herd immunity will be somewhat established for 64 and younger by Nov.

but because of

1. high infectiousness
2. large number of asymptomatic carriers
3. reinfection among younger people

65+ will not benefit from herd immunity, esp. in nursing homes.
Read 8 tweets
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Barton
@Barton_options
Pushing for premature reopening is akin to raising the nose of your aircraft when it is stalled.

And not having sufficient testing capacity is similar to having bad airspeed and AOA indicators.
When an aircraft stalls, it quickly loses its altitude, but the correct recovery maneuver is to nose dive first to gain airspeed, then gradually pulling out of the dive once the wings are no longer stalled.

pulling nose up prematurely only makes you lose precious altitude faster
The root cause of US economy in a free fall is the rapid spreading of a lethal virus. Lockdown measures buy us time to treat and isolate active cases.

Reopening without adequately disease-control measures will only kill more customers, employees, consumer/investor confidence.
Read 3 tweets
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Barton
@Barton_options
Great summary of where we are and what future may hold for us. nytimes.com/2020/04/18/hea…
Lockdown != lockdown
Incentives can create perverse outcomes
Read 4 tweets

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