Barton Profile picture
PhD. Swing trader in index options, Fed watcher. Tweets reflect my personal observations. No investment advice. No medical advice.
RC Profile picture brekkie4dinner Profile picture Richard Bateson Profile picture 3 added to My Authors
4 Aug
pretty encouraging results from UToronto on COVID19 IgG/IgA antibody longevity.

Looks like 80% of the people including many 60+ can sustain high level of IgG 4 months after infection.

medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
And Saliva IgG, IgA testing should be as good as blood testing.
A word of caution needs to be said about the 20% of the people who did see their IgG decaying too much after 4 months.
Read 3 tweets
4 Aug
One can never underestimate people's lack of imagination.

Why can't we re-organize our economy to crush COVID for 9 months?

Running old economy at 80%, and re-direct 20% of national resource for contact tracing, home schooling, PPE manufacturing etc.
20% of 9-month GDP = $3Tr (< than CARES + other stimulus bills)

20% of 155M employed people = 31 million jobs (current unemployment is 17million)
But no, the only option they are willing to accept is

1. Have no leadership
2. go back to 100% old economy & have millions of deaths.

(we literally need to reduce fatality rate of 65+ by more than 3x from current values to keep the final death toll below 1million in the US!)
Read 3 tweets
4 Aug
In case that you missed it, Treasury will be effectively shorting (i.e. selling) UST by $3000Bn for the next 5 months.

Fed will buy $400Bn.

The rest is on whom?
How much is $2600Bn?

That is China + Japan's UST holding times 120%. 😂

in 5 months...

either fireworks soon, or fireworks in early 2021 with a new Treasury secretary, or Fed caves in again.
typo: China + Japan times 110%
Read 6 tweets
31 Jul
The recent CDC study of 59000 contacts showing 0-9 yo having low risk of spreading COVID was done

in South Korea in Jan-March 2020, when schools there were 100% closed.

wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26…
Just because 737max don’t crash when they are grounded does not mean that they are safe to fly without a fix.
Read 2 tweets
31 Jul
It looks like TMPRSS2 is the reason why CQ/HCQ works for African Green Monkeys, but not for Homo Sapiens.

PSA: TMPRSS2 is DHT dependent, and can be 8-10x higher in guys than in ladies.

—> Potentially, CQ/HCQ highly useless for bodybuilders and guys with hair loss.
Remdesivir does not look much better than CQ/HCQ though

bmj.com/content/370/bm…

To be fair, remdesivir does not have a TMPRSS2 problem (cell entry step).
Read 2 tweets
26 Jul
Blind (with no evidence from data) faith in T-cell immunity is pretty awful for people unlucky enough to be re-infected.

Expect no intervention and underreporting, except for cases bad enough to go through ER.
Why?

When people take long-lasting immunity for granted,

family & doctors/hospitals all tend to brush a patient with mild symptoms off and ration testing (since testing is backlogged in many cities), until symptoms are severe enough for an ER visit.
This strategy may work fine for a 20 yo, but having a 40 yo going through COVID twice, both times without treatment until oxygen saturation is low, is not going to be good for recovery.
Read 3 tweets
18 Jul
Reasons why three gorges dam is highly unlikely an issue.

1. spillway capacity: 80,000 cubic meter/s. inflow has been 32,000-40,000 cubic meter/s lately

2. normal peak water level is 175m, and current water level is only 157m.
Wuhan can get flooded, but that's hurricane sandy-level of problem for China, IMO.
How three gorges dam (TGD) works in a typical year?

Precipitation in Yangtze river watershed above TGD is very seasonal (see the chart for Chongqing (upstream)), so TGD loads up water (for power generation + navigation) in Sept-Oct in anticipation for the dry winter season.
Read 9 tweets
16 Jul
1/ Science is often nuanced. Let's look at the hydroxychloroqine paper today. We can spin the data both ways.

academic.oup.com/cid/article/do…
2/ First, HCQ-is-a-hoax camp: no significant reduction in viral load in HCQ group vs control.

main problem with this statement: rtPCR is not highly accurate as a quantitative tool. even specimen collection introduces hugh variability.
3/ Also, remdesivir, dexamethasone were never considered effectively because they reduce PCR-measured viral-load. kind of an unfair treatment for HCQ.
Read 8 tweets
15 Jul
PSA: death data by reporting date is
1. lagging
2. more noisy
than death data by date of death.

So please stop committing chart crimes in slicing-n-dicing Bloomberg death data.

(the dip in dark grey on july 14th shows you the 5-7 day lag in death reporting)

Pls retweet.🙏🙏
lags and noises will only get worse when FL and TX get more overwhelmed.
Read 2 tweets
14 Jul
Do you know this?
1/ Enough mystery. This is a snapshot of cross-product option open interest for uncovered options on June 26th (a relatively boring day post quarterly opex, to minimize the impact of rolling)

It is a rough gauge on how many products one need to track for aggregate flow.
2/ open-interest are normalized to equivalent index options. e.g.1 SPX option = 10 SPY options = 2 ES options.

NDX/QQQ/NQ and RUT/IWM/RTY numbers are scaled by 30x and 50x respectively, because they are way smaller in OI than SPX
Read 6 tweets
13 Jul
Hey friends on twitter. I do appreciate your positive feedback & likes on my long posts.

Trolls have been trying DDoS attacks by flooding some of my threads with cheap attacks.

Positive notes/likes from you help GREATLY in neutralizing that negativity. 🙏🙏🙏
even though sometimes I am very slow in responding due to my other responsibilities. but I want you to know your positive feedback DOES make a huge difference for me.
Read 2 tweets
13 Jul
1/ The grand COVID19 genetic lottery.

COVID is NOT flu. It is a much more complex multi-organ infectious disease.

The clinical course/severity vary greatly from person to person, so much so that Brigham&Women's hospitals' protocol is 21 Chapters long!

covidprotocols.org/all-chapters
2/ COVID definitely gives people with comorbidity a harder time than a healthy person, but so does every other severe infectious disease.

For working-age healthy people, the severity and clinic course vary tremendously, probably to do with difference in genetics
3/ I call it a genetic lottery, because the severity appears to be run in blood relatives.

Actionable item: if you are a 30-something who had bad COVID symptoms, your parents should be very careful and proactive in dealing with COVID.
Read 12 tweets
12 Jul
Expect COVID truthers to use this study to push for school reopening irrespective of severity of local COVID spread.

Very few will read the paper, which only showed that *during school closure* in Geneva (CH) and Qingdao(CN), very few kids gave COVID to their parents.
The conclusion of the paper is wrong. You can’t claim opening school is not going to increase spread, when all your data were from periods when schools were closed.

Anyways, be ready for weeks of disinformation campaign of “opening school now”
Read 2 tweets
11 Jul
Examples of 2nd full blown infection 3-4 months after 1st COVID infection. Not talking about lingering PCR positive here.

Each person’s immune system is different, but do you really want to find out the hard way?

More examples of COVID reinfection from physicians

Read 6 tweets
11 Jul
1/ Fallacy of applying population fatality rate to an individual.

Bad statistics. —> bad decision making

Assuming that 3month into the future, the infection fatality rate of COVID19 for 30-45yo male in the US turns out to be 0.6%, does that mean the risk of dying...
For someone in that age group, like me, is truly 0.6%?

Absolutely not, unless I have the average genetic make up and the average health of American men (nobody has that)

My risk is probably a lot higher or a lot lower depending on my actual genetic make up.
3/ an example here.

According to ZOCOR ( a statin med to lower cholesterol) insert, risk of having myopathy (muscle cramp, pain, rhabdo) is 0.08% at 40mg/day. that’s a number for an average American.

But for me, that risk is 60-80%. MyMom had myopathy on zocor.
Read 7 tweets
11 Jul
Recent cases of 2nd full blown COVID infection (fever, low oxygen saturation) among some people who had moderate cases (low oxygen but never on ventilators) back in March

Really makes me think COVID is like a genetic roulette.
Also People are so afraid of 737max with a fatality rate <<0.0001%,and yet they are not hesitant to catch COVID which is several orders of magnitude more lethal.

Effective brain-washing ?
Read 2 tweets
9 Jul
1/ In case that you missed it... and let's talk about TGA
2/ The official reason for TGA to go parabolic was that Treasury desired to encumber the debt ceiling with extra 2T for CARES act spending.

They could have done it over 6-9 months. They chose to rush it by July 2nd after the TBAC target was published at the beginning of May.
3/ What the treasury did was to issue new tenors of Tbills (6-, 15-, 17-, 22-week, 30-40Bn each tenor for every week and $20-25Bn 9-month tenor once every month).

This was communicated to the Fed, which was part of the reason Fed had to do 80(UST)+40(MBS)Bn QE every month
Read 7 tweets
29 Jun
1/ US vs. Brazil, daily new COVID cases & death(from worldometers.info)

The naive interpretation:
US is getting much better! (death/case ratio)
Our treatment rocks!
COVID is getting weaker!

(! used as excited it-has-finally-turn-into-flu bros and sis insist) /s
2/ faulty assumptions in the naive analysis:

1. daily new case # accurately reflects daily new symptomatic COVID patients, without realizing that (a) lack of test kits in the US in march pushed the actual peak (red) later) (b) many tests were reported 5-8 days late
3/ 2. daily death # is not revised up later (death # gets revised in CDC reports and many state reports)

3. age distribution of COVID new cases remains constant.
Read 8 tweets
27 Jun
If we keep letting PR people running the government, I am afraid that one day they will argue a nuclear war is good for you.

Of course. Tegnell will chime in, “there is no scientific evidence that nuclear wars will kill off human civilization” #sarcasm
Read this book in 2002. By the defintion in this book, 90% of the news today is basically nonstop PR pieces from politicians.
Read 2 tweets
27 Jun
Here is an idea to incentive governors/mayors/senators to do the right thing.

All elected officials in the US have a Fed AMT tax rate (locked for 20 years) tied to the days between national emergency (3/13) and peak COVID19 in the region they govern/represent (div by 2).
For the first wave only, i.e. 2nd wave after Sept 30 does not count.

Texas COVID19 peaks on July 31st? That's a 70% AMT tax rate for you, governor and senators, for 20 years!

Ohio governor, keep your COVID daily case below 1380, you can keep your 18% tax rate for 20 years😂😂
Read 2 tweets
27 Jun
Chinese government gives free money to their companies, to a large extent by how much export they do (the subsidy others complained about) and by perceived technological value

US government gives free money to companies by how much buyback they have done (% of 2019 CB issuance)
neither is an efficient use of capital. but you can tell which one is worse.
Read 2 tweets