Here are states with big recent increases, as measured by new cases recorded in the previous 7 days as compared to the 7 days prior:
ND +191%
OH +157%
IA +105%
NE +83%
NH +54%
DE +40%
AR +40%
MN +39%
MS +39%
CA* +33%
* A bit misleading—CA level after accounting for test volume.
ND +191%
OH +157%
IA +105%
NE +83%
NH +54%
DE +40%
AR +40%
MN +39%
MS +39%
CA* +33%
* A bit misleading—CA level after accounting for test volume.
The list of *declining* states is harder because some states on the list haven't been great about reporting test volume. But some places that semi-robustly seem to be doing better include NY, VT, AK, HI, MI, MT. Probably LA too but their data on negative tests has been erratic.
Generally the states doing better either:
1) are quite isolated (e.g. HI)
2) had very bad outbreaks already (e.g. MI), or
3) are in the Deep South, which may (?) reflect hotter weather
If a state doesn't fall into one of those categories it may not be making much progress.
1) are quite isolated (e.g. HI)
2) had very bad outbreaks already (e.g. MI), or
3) are in the Deep South, which may (?) reflect hotter weather
If a state doesn't fall into one of those categories it may not be making much progress.
One question we might ask from this is whether US-style social distancing is truly enough to get R<1 on its own, or instead it needs some "help" from herd immunity, warm weather, or — in some of these low-population states —geographic isolation + contact-tracing.
Or there may be a lot of places where R is <1 among the general population, but R>>1 for critical workers and among other populations. A lot of the bad outbreaks recently are in places like prisons and meat-packing plants, not the general population.
