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US daily numbers via @COVID19Tracking. Weird day.

Newly reported deaths:
Today: 1,163
Yesterday: 1,095
One week ago (4/20): 1,689

Newly reported cases:
T: 22K
Y: 27K
4/20: 25K

Newly reported tests:
T: 136K
Y: 208K
4/20: 149K

Share of positive tests:
T: 16%
Y: 13%
4/20: 17%
We've had two days in a row where death counts are closer to 1K than 2K. That's good, but Sundays and Mondays are typically low days for reporting. Tomorrow will likely be worse. Still, these numbers are down from previous Sundays/Mondays.
Meanwhile, after several days in a row with 200K-300K tests, we reverted back to 136K. It's the fewest new positives since March 30, but that partly reflects the relatively low volume of tests; the positive rate (16%) was pretty good but not great.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Apart from warmer weather, it's also worth keeping in mind that we're getting to the point in time when a lot of people expected the lockdowns to end. Here is some polling data on that: scottrasmussen.com/37-expect-lock…
Most people did *not* expect the lockdowns to last only a few weeks, even though the initial time frame for stay-at-home orders was a few weeks in many places.

58% *did* expect them to end within a month or two, however. Now that it's May, it's been "a month or two", roughly.
To put it another way, while it may be a good idea to continue the lockdown—indeed, I think it still is a good and necessary idea, at least for most places!—the mandate for the *original* lockdown may be waning, and pro-lockdown folks should be aware of that.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
This is a weird comment, Eric, and not an accurate characterization of the interview w/IHME. People should listen for themselves. A lot of our questions are implicitly or explicitly critical. But it is an interview, not a critique (or an endorsement). fivethirtyeight.com/features/polit…
I do express empathy with IHME in the interview—and have expressed it on Twitter too—because 1) building models is hard 2) criticizing them is easy and 3) some of the criticisms are dumb. But I don't think I've offered much praise for the technical details behind their approach.
When I've seen smart technical criticisms of IHME, I've tried to amplify/add to those (see below). It's also not my field, though, so as an outsider, my comments are going be more tempered than they would be for say an election or NBA model.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
US daily numbers via @COVID19Tracking:

Newly reported deaths:
Today: 1,158
Yesterday: 1,651
One week ago (4/26): 1,095

Newly reported cases:
T: 26K
Y: 30K
4/26: 27K

Newly reported tests:
T: 237K
Y: 265K
4/26: 206K

Positive test rate:
T: 11%
Y: 11%
4/26: 13%
Unfortunately, I don't think anybody should necessarily feel too optimistic about the lower-than-usual number of reported deaths today, since reporting is often slower on weekends. Note that last Sunday was a slow day too but was then followed by 2K+ on Tues/Wed/Thurs.
The positive test rate continues to S L O W L Y decline but that's really a blend of a fairly clear decline in some places, and no decline (or an ↑) in others. It remains important to account for testing volume—otherwise you're basically punishing states for doing more testing.
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