Thread by @NateSilver538

It really is under-appreciated how different the COVID-19 trajectories look in different states.

Here's a quick THREAD with another simple way to summarize the data.

Take a 7-day average of a state's newly-reported cases. Where does it compare to a state's peak?

Note: this is not ideal, because it doesn't account for changes in a state's volume of testing. But since testing has been quite stagnant in most states—not a good thing, BTW!—that probably matters less than usual. Where testing is a big factor, I will note that.

While you might look at the national data and think things are going all right, 15 states + DC are *currently* at their peaks.

These are:
AR
AZ
CA &
DC
DE
IA
IL
IN
MN
MS
ND
NE
NH
OH
RI *
VA

& testing data is murky in CA
* increased testing volume likely a factor in RI

Another 6 states are not technically at their peaks, but the peak has come within the past week so it's hard to say it's over yet. These are:

CT *
KS
KY
MA *
NC
SD

* increased testing volume likely a factor in CT & MA

5 more states have peaks that occurred a week or more ago, but have fallen by less than 10% from the peak. These are:

GA
MD
NM
NJ
UT*

* increased testing volume likely a factor in UT

So basically, half the states are still at or near their peaks in reported cases.

8 states have fallen by 10-25% from their peaks. This starts to count as real progress. These are:

AL
CO
MI
NV
PA
TX
WV
WI

8 more states have fallen 25-50% from their peaks:

FL
ME
MO
NY
OK
OR
TN
SC

Finally, 8 states have already fallen more than *50%* from their peaks.

AK
HI
ID
LA
MT
VT
WA
WY

Can you find some patterns here? Sure. Fortunately the states with the very worst outbreaks (NY, MI, LA) are getting better. Weather may be a factor. Density may matter. Some states that never issued stay-at-home orders are having issues. But it's weird & idiosyncratic data.