Too many people of my acquaintance place a lot of stock in Hanlon's Razor, specifically because their immediate thought after running it is "... But nobody could be that stupid."
Evil is not a great model for explaining bad results much of the time. Stupidity has same problem.
McKenzie's Razor and Shaving Cream: Don't attribute to evil what you can explain by emergent behavior in complex system.
You should aggressively update your estimate on whether a system is bugged or not by inspecting whether the system delivers sensible outputs given its inputs.
This is instrumentally useful for technologists because you probably spend a lot of your time around very smart people and very bugged systems, and therefore you will not prematurely rush to conclude "Hmm that there black box has smart people operating it; probably flawless."
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One of the cultural quirks of capitalists is that there are many lies that one is allowed or even encouraged to tell in society, and capitalists are members of society, but are in principle not allowed to lie about revenue.
I have jokingly phrased this as “Certain forms of writing are sacred. For example, if you write the word Balance Sheet on top of a list of numbers, those numbers become sacred to capitalists, and a lie amongst them is a sin that the gods of capitalism will punish most severely.”
But this causes a cultural disconnect because society broadly allows many fudgings of numbers. And e.g. conversations between management and investors allow for certain forms of salesmanship.
But about revenue: not allowed. We are pretty serious on that.
There is one contractor during this home remodel who I greatly enjoy because of his continued imprecations about the general state of contracting, other subs on project, etc.
“Got something to show you Mr. McKenzie. *gestures at floor* Do you understand how a laser level works?”
Me: “I think I get the theory.”
Contractor: “I think I do, too. Of course back in my day we did this with a bubble level of maybe a piece of string and a weight. But I was concerned that perhaps the people who put this floor in might not understand how to use traditional wisdom.”
Contractor: “So I brought a laser over here. Now, by my mark, and I brought here another piece of high tech gadgetry called a measuring tape, this floor is 3 and an eighth inches off.”
Me: “Ah I see.”
Contractor: “Three and an eighth! Who does that?!”
SBF has a new interview out, conducted from prison. It is... unbelievable, at points.
Highlights include:
* Strong direct statement of his innocence.
* Accusing prosecution and judge of policitized process, analogising to experience of President Trump, apparent maneuvering to secure clemancy.
* Implied rationale for prosecution: his donations to Republicans.
* Expressions of frustration that S&C/John Ray III didn't collaboratively receive balance sheets and other business records from him and rather set about reconstructing them, which he claims delayed recovery and cost creditors substantial amounts of money in e.g. legal fees.
Me: Ah a nice relaxing Monday where I can finally get some work done.
DOGE: Have you ever heard of checks?!
Me: %{*]% it.
Me: I don’t do partisan politics.
Twitter the Sumerian bird demon: Got it.
Me: Which is why I work in a painfully boring infrastructural field.
Twitter: Oh sure.
Me: That no one hates each other over.
Twitter: Yeah.
Me: So just writing the truth won’t summon a mob.
*curse starts*
Why does the government send a lot of checks? Principally because it is the easiest payment method in the U.S. to coordinate over multi-year timescales without needing to constantly re-coordinate updates with the payee on how they get their money these days.
Friendly neighborhood Dangerous Professional advice:
If you are ever at a meeting taking notes, and someone at the meeting expresses umbrage that notes are being taken of the meeting, and this is routine notetaking for this genre of meeting, …
… you should absolutely want to keep physical control of those notes, and you should prioritize that over social pressure you may perceive, and you should update very aggressively against the umbrage-taker as being likely up to no good.
You should also, immediately after the meeting, document the fact that you were taking notes at a meeting and asked to stop, and that you felt in that moment this ask was extraordinary.
Since the printing press, it was injurious to reputations to have something untrue said at scale.
We should have adopted more care about this after it became habit in society to Google someone's name and Google started weighting institutions highly.
And now we're standing on the precipice of another revolution in user behavior caused by a technological substrate almost unimaginable earlier: there will be a presumptively authoritative answerer of almost every question, in almost every pocket, and many places besides.
It behooves us as individuals to care what that alien mind thinks about us, because it is going to be consulted actively and passively even more than Google is.
And it behooves us, as society, to exercise some care in what we put into the training set.