Patrick McKenzie Profile picture
Apr 22, 2020 3 tweets 1 min read Read on X
Too many people of my acquaintance place a lot of stock in Hanlon's Razor, specifically because their immediate thought after running it is "... But nobody could be that stupid."

Evil is not a great model for explaining bad results much of the time. Stupidity has same problem.
McKenzie's Razor and Shaving Cream: Don't attribute to evil what you can explain by emergent behavior in complex system.

You should aggressively update your estimate on whether a system is bugged or not by inspecting whether the system delivers sensible outputs given its inputs.
This is instrumentally useful for technologists because you probably spend a lot of your time around very smart people and very bugged systems, and therefore you will not prematurely rush to conclude "Hmm that there black box has smart people operating it; probably flawless."

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Patrick McKenzie

Patrick McKenzie Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @patio11

Dec 13
A contractor said something during this project which I thought was both compassionate and the sign that he was a skilled professional, and I thought I’d share:

Scene: My mother, who has some mobility challenges, is sketching out what she wants in her kitchen. He listens.
Then he takes me aside. Following conversation is indicative.

Me: All sound reasonable?
Him: I’ll build whatever you two decide on, but I wanted to have a conversation with you in private first.
Him: Nobody wants to get old and nobody wants their parents to get old, but it happens to everyone, and may God grant your mother many happy years.
Me: Thank you for saying that.
Him: How big do you think a wheelchair is?
Me: Mom doesn’t…
Read 6 tweets
Dec 11
Ruriko: I asked at the train station how to use the automated gates to get the child’s rate for Lillian.
Me: OK.
Ruriko: That was really hard.
Me: OK.
Ruriko: Then I asked the attendant how old children could be and still receive the child’s rate. Do you know what she told me?
Me: I will bet it did not include a correct answer.
Ruriko: How can you work as a train station attendant and not know that answer.
Me: *sigh* America.
Someday I need a better URL describing The Sort.
Read 5 tweets
Dec 9
So, debanking.
I try to be non-partisan in professional spaces. That is due, in no small part, to the acceptable spectrum of opinions in tech spaces as having been about 70 nanometers or so wide for much of the last few years.
Also, related to that, there is this fun game which is played on Twitter, where you adversarially claim that someone represents their employer, elaborate that something they have said causes a workplace safety or PR issue, and then ask for them to made an example of.
Read 17 tweets
Dec 5
We’re going to hear many, many more stories that round to this one.
One subvariant of them is that early adopters of LLMs outside of companies are going to tell those companies *things they do not know about themselves.*
People often diagnose malice or reckless indifference in a SOP which misquotes the constellation of agreements backing e.g. a rental contract.

Often it is more Seeing like a Really Big Business issues than either of those. Everyone did their job, system in totality failed.
Read 6 tweets
Dec 2
A thread on identity theft pervasiveness (and unpleasant remediation processes) in a population which experiences many challenges.
I'll observe two things which are counterintuitive:

1) You might naively assume that "identities" get more valuable as one moves up the socioeconomic ladder, but there is a discontinuity, because certain societally-favored identities have payment streams associated with them.
These go down sharply in working class and don't rise above that level again until you either a) get fairly deep into the upper middle class / PMC or b) somehow manage to get someone's full social security payment, which is (for various reasons) much less likely than other ways.
Read 14 tweets
Nov 21
Meta comment: this is going to be one of the longest and most heavily cited research results in the software industry.
As to the object level phenomenon, eh, clearly happens. I don’t know if I have strong impressions on where the number is for various orgs.
Many of these people believe they are good at their jobs and I am prepared to believe for a tiny slice of them that they are actually right.
Read 7 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

:(