@patio11's Threads
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I don't know whether it's the contrarian in me or the part that is just fascinated by the mechanics of finance, but I feel like I would weight more highly commentary about the Vision Fund if it were followed with "And that's why I shorted it, using publicly traded instruments."
"How would you do that?"
The SoftBank Group is a holding company. Its ticker is $SFTBY. As a holding company, it is essentially just a math formula plus leverage. They publish the formula and the leverage.
c.f. the snapshot on page 31 of their 2019 AR cdn.group.softbank/en/corp/set/da…
The SoftBank Group is a holding company. Its ticker is $SFTBY. As a holding company, it is essentially just a math formula plus leverage. They publish the formula and the leverage.
c.f. the snapshot on page 31 of their 2019 AR cdn.group.softbank/en/corp/set/da…
Alibaba ($BABA among other places), SoftBank (9984), Sprint ($S), and Yahoo Japan (4689) are relatively easy to acquire on the open market. ARM is not. The Vision Fund is not. There's some minor residual value to the SoftBank Group.
This is *very much a thing*, particularly in networks where the business technology of B2B SaaS is well understood and where some participants are 3+ years down the curve from other participants.
To quote someone: "What am I going to do [with profits], buy apartment buildings?"
To quote someone: "What am I going to do [with profits], buy apartment buildings?"
I expect to see a further expansion of this into "You did B2B product/sales/marketing/etc at a peer firm? For N years? I'm going to call your boss, and if I don't get back 'is an axe murderer' here's $500k."
"Why?"
Because B2B SaaS is, like enterprise software before it, essentially a solved playbook. The companies are extremely capital efficient to start, have high quality options for growth or exit, and throw off mountains of cash unless you're aggressively reinvesting in growth.
Because B2B SaaS is, like enterprise software before it, essentially a solved playbook. The companies are extremely capital efficient to start, have high quality options for growth or exit, and throw off mountains of cash unless you're aggressively reinvesting in growth.
Everyone should do this at least twice when they are a student, once to have the experience of doing it and one to realize it works *without* announcing you have a student’s special permission to try doing it.
I think people persistently overestimate how many folks want to get in touch with decisionmakers, particularly decisionmakers one or two hops from limelight, and underestimate where they are viz the bar of being interesting enough to warrant N minutes of time.
And to the extent a particular person is *truly* too exposed and *truly* uninterested in talking to you, there is a well-functioning system designed by experts in this sort of thing which is designed to protect their time and funnel issues unworthy of their attention to others.
You should expect this threat environment for both yourself and your customers.
Wish more banks would do what Stripe does here: “Log into your account and use the ‘auth a support rep’ feature. I will read you some digits, you verify they match, then read your digits to me.”
Wish more banks would do what Stripe does here: “Log into your account and use the ‘auth a support rep’ feature. I will read you some digits, you verify they match, then read your digits to me.”
(Banks don’t do this because an extremely material portion of their business still does not use the website or app or cannot quickly access them when called, but this is less likely to be true about your customers than theirs.)
And yeah, nobody on the phone is who they say they are until they have given you an internal extension that you can route from a known-good phone number. Their call center or similar almost certainly supports incoming calls and temporarily pausing a queue while waiting for one.
This is the transcript of the recent Tether hearing, which is a) riveting, b) a great way to improve your impression of the US legal system, and c) very bad news if you somehow thought this was going to work out well for Tether.
"Why would it increase your confidence in the US legal system?"
Sheer depth and breadth at which they have instantaneous recall of facts from e.g. precedent and being able to argue, on a minute to minute basis, fine distinctions while making optimizations based on microfeedback.
Sheer depth and breadth at which they have instantaneous recall of facts from e.g. precedent and being able to argue, on a minute to minute basis, fine distinctions while making optimizations based on microfeedback.
Also Ctrl-F "Polonius" for a judge who is much, much better read than the lawyer talking to him.
"Poloniex?"
"Poloniex?"
If you are selling X, and you want an extremely high-value thing you could offer any prospect, lead, or decision maker, offer to read any offer for X and tell them the pros/cons of the offer entirely honestly.
You can extend this to e.g. explaining the cost structure and how it directly impacts delivery.
Why do this? Easy source of fun conversations. Sets yourself up as the expert, particularly to the extent you justly talk up the competition. (People are *shocked* when a salesman recommends the competition or praises them, even in part.)
Just the fact you’d do it is a signal.
Just the fact you’d do it is a signal.
Technology-driven widespread unemployment ("the robots will take all the jobs") is, like wizards who fly spaceships, a fun premise for science fiction but difficult to find examples for in economic history.
(The best example I know is for horses.)
(The best example I know is for horses.)
I understand people who are extremely concerned by it, but I think you need a theory for it which successfully predicts bank teller employment trends over the last 50 years prior to justifying the number of column inches it gets.
"Haha Patrick you're not going to tell me bank teller employment is up since we made a machine literally called Automated Teller Machine are you."
Bessen, 2015:
Bessen, 2015:
Strong disagree; institutions are broadly awful at community and at generating happiness. This appears to be a social technology we have disimproved upon in recent years.
There are times/places/scenes/friend groups/networks/etc on the Internet which are *magic.*
There are times/places/scenes/friend groups/networks/etc on the Internet which are *magic.*
Hacker News, which is an example people often use to indict the Internet, has directly contributed far more to my present happiness and circle of friends than e.g. my university did.
It has its fair share of problems, too, but because Internet we take it so much less seriously.
It has its fair share of problems, too, but because Internet we take it so much less seriously.
Taking it seriously: consider HN versus a university of your choice. Here, let’s take Harvard. Harvard clearly does some good in the world and has its share of problems. We tend to credit only one of those two factors for HN because of a disbelief the Internet could do the other.
So if you're looking for someone who does excellent comedy in Japanese, I'd recommend this guy.
As to the actual content: the non-obvious rationale is "Consumer banking has to make money somehow; options are limited in a low interest rate environment."
As to the actual content: the non-obvious rationale is "Consumer banking has to make money somehow; options are limited in a low interest rate environment."
"How does consumer banking make money?"
Net interest on deposits
Net interest on consumer loans
Revenue from selling non-loan financial products (e.g. asset management, insurance)
Fees the consumer sees
Payments revenue (interchange on CCs/debit cards + transfer fees)
Net interest on deposits
Net interest on consumer loans
Revenue from selling non-loan financial products (e.g. asset management, insurance)
Fees the consumer sees
Payments revenue (interchange on CCs/debit cards + transfer fees)
The math is *extremely* difficult for consumer banking in Japan for typical consumers who do not yet have a lot of assets, and even with paying ATM / transfer / etc fees which are a lot higher than in peer countries, they likely are being subsidized by bank ('s other customers).
Technologists talk a good game about being numerically oriented and rational but they love, love, love their "Wall Street is picking your pockets via payment for order flow" meme.
That claim about reality can be evaluated, with numbers.
It is false.
That claim about reality can be evaluated, with numbers.
It is false.
People also think they are anomalously well informed about this because they read a reporter, who thinks they are well informed about this, regurgitate Michael Lewis, who thinks he is well informed about this, paraphrase Brad Katsuyama, who thinks he is well informed about this.
You know who is actually well informed about this? The #%(#)%()#% computer which generated the "(%)()0%# number on page 31 of Schwab's 2018 10-k. That computer is #%)&()#& well informed about this.
It reliably reports that PFoF is a rounding error 1/5th size of comissions.
It reliably reports that PFoF is a rounding error 1/5th size of comissions.
Would agree with this, and for security reasons you should avoid SMS anyhow.
Similar:
1) Role email addresses at company domain not personally scoped ones on accounts
2) Get a mail forwarding address at least until you have consistent office space
Similar:
1) Role email addresses at company domain not personally scoped ones on accounts
2) Get a mail forwarding address at least until you have consistent office space
(After years of using Earth Class Mail for every financial institution I can convince into taking it I’m hoping to never have them choose to mail a physical address again. Would *certainly* use again for business for the class of things that need an address not a location.)
*Someone* is going to eventually come up with an addressing layer such that an institution can send a letter addressed to patio11 and have it physically arrive in my hands but until they do we get to scratchbuild our own at silly costs.
People often ask me why I live in Japan.
A part: is that it is a place where I could take my daughter to lost-and-found to ask about an acorn, knowing that someone would return an acorn, knowing that someone would clearly expect a lost acorn to be returned and therefore ask.
A part: is that it is a place where I could take my daughter to lost-and-found to ask about an acorn, knowing that someone would return an acorn, knowing that someone would clearly expect a lost acorn to be returned and therefore ask.
This observation is not about acorns or lost-and-founds, and I suffer from an inability to put into words what it *is* about, and I suspect that if I had words they would be viewed with extreme displeasure by people who didn’t have their acorns returned when they were kids.
An anecdote for you:
My last encounter with police in Japan was walking approximately a mile to the station to drop off a Swiss Army knife abandoned in a park where children play. I was advised to call them next time so that they could come pick it up.
My last encounter with police in Japan was walking approximately a mile to the station to drop off a Swiss Army knife abandoned in a park where children play. I was advised to call them next time so that they could come pick it up.
Apparently Charles Schwab just cut commissions to zero, which was always going to happen but feels plausibly sped up by RobinHood.
(If you don’t understand why they could do that, c.f.
kalzumeus.com/2019/6/26/how-… )
(If you don’t understand why they could do that, c.f.
kalzumeus.com/2019/6/26/how-… )
“So that’s a great thing!”
I think there is a little nuance, honestly. Cutting commissions encourages trading but trading is, for the overwhelming majority of their customers, bad.
Commissions are also visible and legible; the actual way they make their money is far less so.
I think there is a little nuance, honestly. Cutting commissions encourages trading but trading is, for the overwhelming majority of their customers, bad.
Commissions are also visible and legible; the actual way they make their money is far less so.
“Yeah they are selling customers out to Wall Street.”
*sigh* No, they are encouraging customers to keep (too much) cash deposited with them and then buying lots of mortgage-backed securities.
This drives product decisions, like cash allocation on their roboadvisor.
*sigh* No, they are encouraging customers to keep (too much) cash deposited with them and then buying lots of mortgage-backed securities.
This drives product decisions, like cash allocation on their roboadvisor.
The designer of this faucet won a lifetime achievement award from the Right Honorable Guild Of Hotel Faucet Designers.
“Beautiful brushed aluminum. Very instagram worthy. Impossible to tell which direction is hot or cold. A pity we could not award you additional points for including an impossible-to-operate mechanism for emptying the basin.”
“Ah but look again.”
“Ah but look again.”
“... Teach us your wisdom, master of the inscrutable arts.”
I consider it an incentive payment for the organizer to have successfully created a Schelling point which gets people who are worth talking to in one place, at one time, in a very talkative mood.
There is a joke that the main attraction of conferences is the "hallway track." As someone who is likely to be a speaker, this joke excessively centers the existence/experience of speakers.
*Of course* 90%+ of the value is talking to 90%+ of the attendees of the conference.
*Of course* 90%+ of the value is talking to 90%+ of the attendees of the conference.
As a speaker you're 20% creating an artifact for the Internet which will help the right sort of people find the conference the next year, 70% providing mood music for the conversations happening at the conference, and 10% doing knowledge transfer.
It matters quite a bit what the return to competence is, whether one models the returns to competence as being static or increasing (or decreasing), what one models the present distribution of competence as, and whether we can intentionally change competence in the small or large
My general beliefs on this are that competence is incredibly useful but the incentive systems for it vary *incredibly* between e.g. industries and positions, the rewards to competence are functionally static in some professions for 50+ years and *very increasing* elsewhere.
This generally allocates competence towards places which reward competence and away from places which don't reward competence. This is fortunate to the extent that we are happy with that and unfortunate to the extent we want competent administration in places it is not rewarded.
Inbox: "How does Stripe maintain a high level of polish?"
Some thoughts, in my personal capacity as someone who writes code occasionally and knows a bit of the story but isn't involved in it daily:
Some thoughts, in my personal capacity as someone who writes code occasionally and knows a bit of the story but isn't involved in it daily:
Table stakes are table stakes: hire a sufficient number of smart people who are quality oriented and reinforce that you are a quality-seeking culture. This includes celebrating it where it is, routinely formally evaluating large swathes of what you're doing for it, and fixing.
Tactically, among the best things you can do is decreasing the effort required to do the right thing.
We make the various technical tradeoffs required to allow substantially any engineer to contribute a PR against any just about any part of the systems. Encourages ownership.
We make the various technical tradeoffs required to allow substantially any engineer to contribute a PR against any just about any part of the systems. Encourages ownership.
It's easy to joke about, but a really important part of both product and marketing at software companies is understanding that there are people for whom this is literally the most important thing they'll hear today.
techcommunity.microsoft.com/t5/Excel-Blog/…
techcommunity.microsoft.com/t5/Excel-Blog/…
I totally get that there is a pattern of status policing which happens around this. ("Oh sure nerds, get excited about how your spreadsheet operates.")
I am much more boggled by that when the status policing of tech people and products happens within the tech industry.
I am much more boggled by that when the status policing of tech people and products happens within the tech industry.
Absolutely no judgment for people who just aesthetically can't conceive of being excited about how spreadsheets operate, but part of me wants to strongly suggest fulfilling and rewarding careers in some other industry which one would more routinely actually enjoy.
A tiny thing that makes my life so much easier:
We have an internal alias for product quality issues, designed to bring the effort required to report them to epsilon. Instead of having to write a ticket and figure out where to write it, you just send an email and a team triages.
We have an internal alias for product quality issues, designed to bring the effort required to report them to epsilon. Instead of having to write a ticket and figure out where to write it, you just send an email and a team triages.
My most recent issue was along the lines of "FYI, if you're using the ruby bindings and give the version number as a date object rather than a string representation of a date, you get an opaque error message. We should just do what the user meant to do."
(I could see an argument there for raising a type error instead but ideally it would be pretty explicit as to the cause and the action you expected the user to take subsequent to it.)
27歳 過労死直前
28歳 サラリーマン脱出。起業。交際
29歳 会社が順調
30歳 結婚。会社が超順調
31歳 鬱って実に難しい字だと分かった年
32歳 長女の誕生
33歳 新会社起業
34歳 圧倒的に睡眠不足
35歳 新会社の失敗。旧会社の売却。Stripeに入社
36歳 長男の誕生
37歳 永住
#10年を振り返る
28歳 サラリーマン脱出。起業。交際
29歳 会社が順調
30歳 結婚。会社が超順調
31歳 鬱って実に難しい字だと分かった年
32歳 長女の誕生
33歳 新会社起業
34歳 圧倒的に睡眠不足
35歳 新会社の失敗。旧会社の売却。Stripeに入社
36歳 長男の誕生
37歳 永住
#10年を振り返る
Bad news: since I mostly tweet in English you probably can't read that. Good news: since you follow me you already know most of it.
(It's "Compress the last 10 years of [your major life events] into a tweet.")
(It's "Compress the last 10 years of [your major life events] into a tweet.")
"Can you translate it?"
Yes, but flavor would be hard to preserve in English.
31 years old: the year I learned that 鬱 (depression) is a [wordplay which says "a really hard character to write" and pointedly does not say an obviously true implied statement about my year]
Yes, but flavor would be hard to preserve in English.
31 years old: the year I learned that 鬱 (depression) is a [wordplay which says "a really hard character to write" and pointedly does not say an obviously true implied statement about my year]
Back when I was doing $30k a week consulting I was, like most consultants, constantly looking to have more free conversations with more people who could plausibly greenlight $60k engagements at B2B SaaS companies.
Those conversations were a mutual qualification dance.
Those conversations were a mutual qualification dance.
Partly the client wants to know "Does this kid possess something that we can't get from self-implementing on blog posts? Could we work with him? Would it hit required biz targets?"
Partly I want to know "Do you have a lever available for my success? Can you find budget?"
Partly I want to know "Do you have a lever available for my success? Can you find budget?"
"A lever, Patrick?"
Given the nature of the kind of work I did, there would have to be some sort of remediable inefficiency / opportunity available in how a B2B SaaS company marketed/sold/etc their product, and one amenable to my skillset.
Given the nature of the kind of work I did, there would have to be some sort of remediable inefficiency / opportunity available in how a B2B SaaS company marketed/sold/etc their product, and one amenable to my skillset.
I have a feeling that there is a market need for one Designated Enemy startup and that the current holder of the chair will find themselves getting criticized for every complaint people have with startups, the tech industry, and capitalism.
“Market need of whom, exactly?”
Primarily people who get paid by the page view; secondarily folks who perceive their class interests to be in conflict with those of technologists. (That may be slightly redundant.)
Primarily people who get paid by the page view; secondarily folks who perceive their class interests to be in conflict with those of technologists. (That may be slightly redundant.)
And people find it difficult to defend the Designated Enemy against the charges, partially because they’ll be immediately asked about whatever caused them to be Designated, and partly out of the instrumental utility of having the Enemy not be them.
An under remarked-upon trend: SFBA/NYC engineering wages are starting to drive engineering wages in the rest of the US as these companies open other US hubs and print remote offers, in both cases keeping salaries in relatively tight bands for e.g. internal fairness reasons.
If you were going strictly by geographical market standards you could have a $200k new graduate in SFBA reporting to a 15 year veteran EM making, hmm, $120k or so in Chicago, but since nobody can tolerate that, that EM gets offered $250k.
"Are there enough engineers from SFBA companies for this to matter nationally?"
There are approximately 3 million software engineers in the US and approximately, finger to wind, 300k work for AppAmaGooBookSoft alone, and that number increases by 50k per year.
There are approximately 3 million software engineers in the US and approximately, finger to wind, 300k work for AppAmaGooBookSoft alone, and that number increases by 50k per year.
Concur with it being much easier to do a podcast than write an essay. I think my feeling re: consumers is more nuanced: people who listen to podcasts feel *much more connected* than readers do, viscerally.
I have a high quality hypothesis for why, too.
Imagine your best friend, your favorite author, a relevant artist or religious leader, a favorite movie star.
How many minutes total have you listened to their voice in 2019? Seriously, math it out.
Imagine your best friend, your favorite author, a relevant artist or religious leader, a favorite movie star.
How many minutes total have you listened to their voice in 2019? Seriously, math it out.
Now math out “I listen to Bob’s weekly podcast for 45 minutes during my commute or gym. Never miss it.”
How many minutes of audio have you heard from Bob in 2019, relative to your best friend, etc?
How many minutes of audio have you heard from Bob in 2019, relative to your best friend, etc?
