I was trying to think through "There are so many unknowns, but if you had just one modal prediction for what the next 18 months look like, what would it say?" and I think it would probably would look a lot like @tylercowen's from a couple weeks ago:
marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolu…
marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolu…
In short (my version not Tyler's): it's a slog; there's never really any plan; we never really decide what trade-offs we're willing to make and so we careen back and forth and to some extent get the worst of both worlds.
(The next tweet is more optimistic.)
(The next tweet is more optimistic.)
BUT: A lot of things chip away at the margins. Technology and new drugs/therapies help. We never get "enough" testing or contact tracing but we do get *some*. We learn more about the disease. We make improvements through trial-and-error.
