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I was trying to think through "There are so many unknowns, but if you had just one modal prediction for what the next 18 months look like, what would it say?" and I think it would probably would look a lot like @tylercowen's from a couple weeks ago:

marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolu…
In short (my version not Tyler's): it's a slog; there's never really any plan; we never really decide what trade-offs we're willing to make and so we careen back and forth and to some extent get the worst of both worlds.

(The next tweet is more optimistic.)
BUT: A lot of things chip away at the margins. Technology and new drugs/therapies help. We never get "enough" testing or contact tracing but we do get *some*. We learn more about the disease. We make improvements through trial-and-error.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
US daily numbers via @COVID19Tracking:

Newly reported deaths:
Today: 2,700*
Yesterday: 2,198
One week ago (4/22): 2,037

Newly reported cases:
T: 28K
Y: 24K
4/22: 28K

Newly reported tests:
T: 230K
Y: 202K
4/22: 314K

Share of tests positive:
T: 12%
Y: 12%
4/22: 9%

* New high
A soberingly high death tally on a day that brought some good news on other fronts (e.g. clinical trials). Death tolls have been bouncing around lately as states seem to be reporting them in batches; 479 in PA today, for example. (PA typically reports 75-100 per day.)
Some of this may be states going back and counting deaths that they missed originally. But still, since a lot of deaths *were* missed, you can expect to see more days like this where states try to catch up to the *true* number
of fatalities.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
So... I think al their data is pretty compatible. First of all, one needs to be careful about comparing stocks (total number of people ever infected) and flows (number of people infected at any one time). So let's say the *flow* in Stockholm was 2.5% of people infected as of 4/1.
A month is enough time for that 2.5% of cases to spread 5-6 times over. If cases were turning over with an R of 1.3 (maybe what you'd get with relaxed social distancing) that gradually declines because of increasing herd immunity, you'd wind up with something roughly like this:
Generation 0: 2.5% newly infected
Generation 1: 3.3%
Generation 2: 3.7%
Generation 3: 4.1%
Generation 4: 4.3%
Generation 5: 4.2%
Generation 6: 3.9%

Or something like that. Which would get you to 26% infected cumulatively. Actually higher, since some people had it before Gen 0.
Read 7 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Two things about Sweden's data:

1) It has had a lot of fatalities. I don't buy the "other places [e.g. Italy] have been worse" take. Sweden's death rate per capita is 6-7x that of Norway and Finland, and 3x that of Denmark.

worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Those comparisons matter more because lots of factors matter in death rates, not all of which reflect government policy. The Nordic/Scandinavian countries should be pretty comparable and will control for a number of those variables.
2) However, it also increasingly seems that their numbers are leveling off, especially in Stockholm, which is what you would expect if 30% of the population has had it there (as their ambassador claims) providing some herd immunity. Here is their ICU data:
portal.icuregswe.org/siri/report/co…
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