If SA has the same percentage of job losses that the USA currently has experienced SA will lose 2.768 million jobs! meaning employment drops from 16,42 to 13,65 million employed. If all the new job losers join the unemployment queue then the unemployment numbers will rise 1/7
from 10,38 million to 13,148 million. While SA also gets about net 600 000 new entrants into the job market every year, the unemployment number by year-end would rise to 13.75 million. SA could have more unemployed adults than employed! 2/7
As the labour force excludes the not economically active, such as students and homemakers, the percentage of adults working could drop to 34% from 42%. That means for every adult working two would not be working. 3/7
Working-age adults are only part of the total SA population. This year the total population will be over 59 million which means that for every 4,33 persons in SA only 1 will be working. End last year the number was 3,56 people depended on 1 job. This is a 21,8% increase. 4/7
Above indicates that each salary must stretch 21,8% further than before to feed, clothe, school & house the population. This, of course, excludes short time or further economic declines. Effectively all the employed will be taxed more by society. 5/7
This is the harsh reality that SA is now staring at. The government will spend more on society and that is right. The point is the lucky few will feel more burdened and they will be carrying a larger load. Making income & production stretch will be hard on all. 6/7
SA is likely to lose a similar number of jobs as to what it employs in the civil service. SA will go from 1 in 8 workers in the civil service to 1 in 6,5. That is unsustainable. So even these numbers will have to look different in a few years. tough times or reform? 7/7
SA is different to the US or any other country this is just one way to calculate the damage. The damage will be here and we will all have a harder time for years to come. Government spending alone cannot fix this. Reforms are needed. 8/7 bonus
