Thread by @a_a_jackson

@JJSchroden @Afghan_Policy #AFGPanel Thanks! Locked down far away from all this and feeling woefully disconnected but caveats aside, here goes...

The Taliban continues to expand/consolidate control in rural areas. Not breaking news, but the mechanics of Taliban strategy post-deal are worth exploring

@JJSchroden @Afghan_Policy #AFGPanel Even w/o announcing a "spring offensive,” Taliban attacks spiked. Particularly attacks on ANSF/checkpts/convoys/etc, in the North/NE/NW as well as South

Yet they seem to be mostly refraining from real attempts to take key terrain/district centers

@JJSchroden @Afghan_Policy #AFGPanel (Side note: Yamgan in Badakshan is an exception, but (a) they held it roughly from 2015 til Sept-ish? ’19 so it's not new ground and (b) it’s fairly marginal geopolitically/militarily speaking. I digress…)

@JJSchroden @Afghan_Policy #AFGPanel IMHO: Taliban's exercising caution, testing what they can get away + the bounds of the deal's "strategic ambiguity." They won’t pursue military objectives at all costs (i.e. if they think they'll risk the deal...which depends on the TB reading US signals correctly 😶)

@JJSchroden @Afghan_Policy #AFGPanel Here’s the thing: do the TB really need to "take" much territory militarily right now?

If they can completely surround DAC so govt officials cannot leave, even to buy food?

If they can plant white TB flags 20 feet from a police checkpoint and get away with it?

@JJSchroden @Afghan_Policy #AFGPanel And if the Taliban can move fairly freely in the district, without “taking” it?

And set up fixed location sharia courts, open to all, on scheduled days of the week?

And control land distribution? As @muzhary recently wrote about 👉 afghanistan-analysts.org/en/reports/eco…

@JJSchroden @Afghan_Policy @muzhary #AFGPanel This is what they are doing: investing, consolidating, strengthening -- off the battlefield

This creeping control strategy can't be captured in stats or color-coded maps. So it is hard to assess the full dimension of control Taliban have exercise (beyond the cities)

@JJSchroden @Afghan_Policy @muzhary #AFGPanel A roughly accurate control might resemble Swiss cheese (roads/DACs surrounded, fuzzy contestation in scores of districts) w a few bastions of consolidated political order (Panshjir, Bamiyan)

Yet it wouldnt capture how the Taliban mobilizes governance-as-a-tactic of war

@JJSchroden @Afghan_Policy @muzhary #AFGPanel I'm definitely not saying that Taliban governance is super complex or terribly sophisticated. I'm saying that it matters that they are investing in structures + consistency

The more they do that, the tighter their control becomes over (a) their ranks + (b) civilians

@JJSchroden @Afghan_Policy @muzhary #AFGPanel Turning to - as I'd promised - Massoud’s piece on the future govt, there are some strong (if not novel) points

Fiscal deconcentration 💯 Kabul’s resource stranglehold is a longstanding outrage and has crippled SNG...and created an opening for Taliban shadow gov

@JJSchroden @Afghan_Policy @muzhary #AFGPanel Massoud loses me when he proposes the Swiss model of governance. But I’m grateful he’s driving a vitally important conversation

What kinds of structures do Afghans want, see as feasible, in line with national values? How do different segments of society, people see it?

@JJSchroden @Afghan_Policy @muzhary #AFGPanel So often the IAN/future state discourses focus on (a) what the Taliban wants (i.e. an emirate? And if so, what exactly is that?) or (b) defending the current system

There's got to be better options. And vigorous debate (among Afghans) is the only way to get there.

@JJSchroden @Afghan_Policy @muzhary #AFGPanel I question parts of Massoud's proposition but desperately want more of this. An array of Afghans (from all sides of the conflict, all spectrum ends of Afghanistan's super diverse society) talking about what system will be inclusive + strong enough to hold

@JJSchroden @Afghan_Policy @muzhary #AFGPanel Otherwise IAN are almost guaranteed to end up in a fatally compromised pact (a la Bonn, 2014, etc) among elites (who prioritize their own interests/ideologies, Afghans be damned) with little chance of bringing any real peace

END