Are things getting better or worse overall in the US?
Are there pockets of concern or good news?
What new data have we gotten in the past week?
How would an epidemiologist look at the data?
A) Case growth
B) Hospitalizations/Deaths among Cases
C) Test positivity
D) Non-specific Influenza-Like Illness (ILI) trends- Ambulatory/ ED visits
E) Non-specific Pneumonia/Influenza trends- deaths
& new data:
F) Serosurveys
G) Symptoms surveys
This paper got a ton of attention ("87% of all ICU patients die!") but @DrJohnScott nailed it in this string:
"Among 1,151 pts who were mechanically ventilated, 3% had gone home, 25% had died, & 72% were still in the hospital"
![](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EWZaGTYWAAECPG1.jpg)
sure, they can always refit the models when deaths rise after the outbreak flares again...but that will take weeks to show up, and the number of ensuing infections could be catastrophic
good quotes here:
statnews.com/2020/04/17/inf…
to control for changes in testing influencing what we see on diagnosed cases, makes sense to look at percent of tests that are positive
this piece from a while back is still highly relevant statnews.com/2020/03/24/we-…
But I have to say-WE NEED MORE TESTING TOO
"Results from testing where patient addresses were not provided or available are being held to allow @QuestDX ... to provide this information, before issuing the public health reports"
It's essential for public health to get complete AND TIMELY lab results
![](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EWZjYwUWAAAsqap.jpg)
surely you've heard of them.
They don't seem to have a way to electronically report to public health yet.
(also some safety concerns)
khn.org/news/abbotts-f…
We'll know we're doing a good job when it becomes HARD to find a + case
@covidtracking has more updated data (though probably less reliable) scraped from each state-
they show an increase in testing in Week 17, and a dip in positivity rate 🤞
NY (39%->28%)
MI (28%->18%)
are continuing to see drops 😅
DE 25%->34% ??
OH 15%->19%
IA 15%->20%
NE 10%->19%
KS 9%->16%
Do you see a pattern in those supposedly safe homeland states?
Not time to reopen
Most famously, @GovKemp who's been roundly criticized, including by Trump, and rightly so (no decline in cases, several worrisome counties, >15% positivity rate)
thehill.com/homenews/state…
![](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EWZrBQFWkAQXEQN.png)
This is where ED syndromic shines. But guess what?
No state maps/graphs
some do:
MI
michigan.gov/coronavirus/0,…
AZ
azdhs.gov/preparedness/e…
NC
ncdhhs.gov/divisions/publ…
FL floridadisaster.org/globalassets/c…
ID public.tableau.com/profile/idaho.…