COVID19 - Maharashtra, Guajarat and Tamil Nadu - a short thread. On March 9th, I wondered how come there were no COVID19 cases reported from these states.
A month and a half later, we see these two states as hotspots. Where are we now?
A month and a half later, we see these two states as hotspots. Where are we now?
The image below has moving average of number of cases of Gujarat and Maharashtra. I took two moving averages - one is 7 day and the other 14 days.
Why?
14 day may seem slow but the trend wont change easily
7 day to understand the direction fast
Are cases reducing?
Why?
14 day may seem slow but the trend wont change easily
7 day to understand the direction fast
Are cases reducing?
If the number of cases are reducing and fast, 7 day moving average will start to go down faster than 14 day mov avg.
Is it happening? No.
Is it happening? No.
Government expects new cases to be 0 by 16th May.
Is it possible?
For that to happen, from tomorrow, the moving average have to follow the red line.
Is it possible?
For that to happen, from tomorrow, the moving average have to follow the red line.
With the available data, can we guess whether it will reduce so fast?
No.
Then, under what basis, does the government make claim?
No.
Then, under what basis, does the government make claim?
Now look at TN's Moving averages.
10 days before 7-day moving average started falling continuously and recall TN CM saying "The number of positive cases are coming down. In another 3-4 days, we believe that it will come to zero."
Well, it shot up and now, it is increasing.
10 days before 7-day moving average started falling continuously and recall TN CM saying "The number of positive cases are coming down. In another 3-4 days, we believe that it will come to zero."
Well, it shot up and now, it is increasing.
In this situation, we can borrow a leading indicator from stock trading - MACD - Moving Average Convergence Divergence.
When it crosses 0 and becomes positive, there is every possibility that it will increase.
When it crosses 0 and becomes positive, there is every possibility that it will increase.
With the publicly available data of just number of cases and tests, there is no way we can conclude cases will become zero anytime soon.
In next 3-5 days, this explanation can be put to test. Let us see how things change.
In next 3-5 days, this explanation can be put to test. Let us see how things change.
Data from:
web.archive.org/web/2020042420…
web.archive.org/web/2020042420…
