In todays episode of things that amuse only me...
Tons of negative opinions on CeeDee's landing spot, not much said about Jeudy's...
Lets take a look at why both of their landing spots sucked..
Thread begins here.
Tons of negative opinions on CeeDee's landing spot, not much said about Jeudy's...
Lets take a look at why both of their landing spots sucked..
Thread begins here.
CeeDee Lamb's new teammates
Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup
Jerry Jeudy's new teammates
Courtland Sutton, Noah Fant.
Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup
Jerry Jeudy's new teammates
Courtland Sutton, Noah Fant.
The first thing we should understand is that once a player is established their target share's stay relatively constant.
There is certainly movement in a players first couple years, but from years 2+ this is probably what we are getting or close to it
There is certainly movement in a players first couple years, but from years 2+ this is probably what we are getting or close to it
Rookie WR's typically average somewhere in this range for target share and then we see the good ones take a step forward in year 2.
The not so good ones either stay the same or kind of disappear (Dante Pettis).
The not so good ones either stay the same or kind of disappear (Dante Pettis).
This is a thread about TE target share growth from 1st to 2nd year.
IE what to expect from Noah Fant.
IE what to expect from Noah Fant.
So that brings us back to why these landing spots suck.
Dallas will have:
Amari
Gallup
Lamb
Lets discuss each player
Dallas will have:
Amari
Gallup
Lamb
Lets discuss each player
Amari is an absolute slam dunk for 20%ish. No way he goes up, but this is likely going to be his best receiving corp, so I dont think its unreasonable to see a slight decrease if anything...
I am still penciling him in for 20% though.
I am still penciling him in for 20% though.
Michael Gallup was well above the rookie 3rd rounder average in target share in 2018.
Then he came out in his second year and commanded a greater target share than Amari...
His track record says he is good. Good players dont see large drops in target share.
Then he came out in his second year and commanded a greater target share than Amari...
His track record says he is good. Good players dont see large drops in target share.
Then we have CeeDee Lamb.
He was/is the best WR in this class imo... but unless one of Amari or Gallup move on I do not see a clear path to a dominant target share for him.
He was/is the best WR in this class imo... but unless one of Amari or Gallup move on I do not see a clear path to a dominant target share for him.
I think he'll probably have an "average" rookie year which would be on pace with Cobb's 15.5% target share from 2019 in Dallas.
So that's fine.
But I want my rookies to start producing fantasy starter weeks in their 2nd year...
So that's fine.
But I want my rookies to start producing fantasy starter weeks in their 2nd year...
For that to happen a couple things need to go right.
1) he needs to steal a couple %'s from Amari and Gallup which would put all 3 guys in the 20%ish range and make everyone else irrelevant
2) Dak needs to keep throwing for 4500+ yards. Which he's only done once (2019).
1) he needs to steal a couple %'s from Amari and Gallup which would put all 3 guys in the 20%ish range and make everyone else irrelevant
2) Dak needs to keep throwing for 4500+ yards. Which he's only done once (2019).
Dallas somehow struggled to an 8-8 record last year.
If you look at Dak's pass attempts and the team record you will notice this was by far his highest attempts and the worst team record. That is normally expected.
If you look at Dak's pass attempts and the team record you will notice this was by far his highest attempts and the worst team record. That is normally expected.
His Y/A was better than his career average though, so there is some reason for optimism that it wasn't just volume and his efficiency increase is here to stay.
So if those things happen we are still talking about 3 guys splitting the yards which happens very infrequently.
They would all be in the WR20-35 production range. Thats not really something I am looking for at Lamb's pre draft adp.
They would all be in the WR20-35 production range. Thats not really something I am looking for at Lamb's pre draft adp.
Now lets look at the Broncos.
Courtland Sutton came out as a rookie and was above average in terms of target share.
Then in his 2nd year he completely took over the offense with a 26.10% target sharewhich is what we expect.
Similar to Gallup, except the whole Amari thing
Courtland Sutton came out as a rookie and was above average in terms of target share.
Then in his 2nd year he completely took over the offense with a 26.10% target sharewhich is what we expect.
Similar to Gallup, except the whole Amari thing
Noah Fant put up one of the top rookie TE seasons in the past couple decades.
He also put up a pretty incredible 13.9% target share as a rookie.
He also put up a pretty incredible 13.9% target share as a rookie.
As you saw above we can probably expect a fairly substantial bump in target share up to the 18%-20% range for a superstar TE to be.
If you think that Fant is not that, then fight me. 😋
If you think that Fant is not that, then fight me. 😋
So that gives us basically the exact same situation.
Both Jeudy and Lamb are headed into 3 headed monster depth charts.
I think one of Dak or Lock can probably handle dishing to a 3 headed monster. And I think the other one is Drew Lock.
Both Jeudy and Lamb are headed into 3 headed monster depth charts.
I think one of Dak or Lock can probably handle dishing to a 3 headed monster. And I think the other one is Drew Lock.
I think these situations are more similar to the Dallas Goedert situation than the AJB situation.
AJB was drafted as the 1B to Corey Davis' 1A.
Lamb and Jeudy are being drafted as 1C options.
AJB was drafted as the 1B to Corey Davis' 1A.
Lamb and Jeudy are being drafted as 1C options.
There is often room for two productive pass catchers on the same team.
When we see three it looks like the Rams WR's in 2018 if everything goes perfectly.
Kupp WR13
Cooks WR18
Woods WR19
When we see three it looks like the Rams WR's in 2018 if everything goes perfectly.
Kupp WR13
Cooks WR18
Woods WR19
Thats not "bad" production by any stretch but its certainly not league winning.
And what happens if everything doesnt go perfectly?
And what happens if everything doesnt go perfectly?
Jeudy and Lamb have both tumbled down my draft board into the late 1st or early 2nd of superflex rookie drafts. (pending tonight's picks)
This is the range where I am just drafting good players regardless of situation.
This is the range where I am just drafting good players regardless of situation.
FWIW I had similar prospect grades on all 6 players involved.
I am in no way playing favorites with "my guys".
I am in no way playing favorites with "my guys".
