I am firmly in the spin the wheel category at the QB position, meaning if you do not have a franchise QB, you simply move mountains trying to get one.

This is why.

This is each teams number of playoff appearances over the past 10 years. There have only been 6 teams that have been to the playoffs in 60% of the past 10 seasons.

That is an alarmingly low number. That could be noisy simply because of the sample selected being the past 10 years.

Some transparency for y'all.

These are my sophomore comps from my January 10th, 2023 thread on my Patreon regarding the 2022 WR class.

Drake London Garrett Wilson

One of the best ways to win fantasy football championships is by rostering the RB that breaks out out of nowhere

This is a hard feat to pull off as there are approximately 3700 options

I would like to introduce you to one of the bets that you simply have to make

Sean Tucker. From a size and athleticism perspective Sean Tucker looks the part. Per @rotounderworld in the screen shot above Tucker measured in at a fairly robust 5-9 and 207 pounds while running a 90th-percentile 4.44 40.

We like that very much.

Much has been said regarding Quentin Johnston's prospect profile and I've been dying to find the time to dive in with y'all.

So lets do the thing where we in fact, dive in. At 6-3 and 208 pounds Johnston comes in as a prototype.

You might be thinking, 'what on earth is a prototype' and I am here to tell you that you should probably draft prototypes when given the opportunity.

To qualify as a prototype a player must be >195 lbs >5-10 and >26.0 BMI

If y'all want me to say, "Voldemort has peripheral metrics that suggest that he might be better than the 10% target share and 8 fantasy ppg player that he's been" then Ill admit it.

I am in fact expecting him to have greater than 10% targets and 8 fantasy ppg this season. There are two things at play here.

#1 - The binary notion of is he "good or evil" at football.

#2 - Regardless of #1, is he a good pick in any format?

So let's take a look at #2.

Drake London.

To bulletproof, or not to bulletproof? That is the question.

Let's Dive In. We will be putting Drake London through the Bulletproof process to see exactly how good... or bad, of a prospect he really is.

Y'all hate Marcus Mariota simply because the Titans didnt pass the football.

Let's dive in. If you think he's a bad quarterback, its probably because of the Titans pass attempts...

2015 - 34.4 (21st)
2016 - 31.5 (28th)
2017 - 31.3 (28th)
2018 - 27.2 (31st)
2019 - 26.9 (32nd)

One of the least understood aspects of fantasy football is projectable range of outcomes, imo.

Let's dive in. I say this is a not well understood because you see people talking about a player's "ceiling" or "floor" and they don't seem to be grounded by reality sometimes

And maybe I am a total fool and I am the one misunderstanding, nevertheless, this is how I do it.

I know that Rashaad Penny is an absolute stud and will continue to be an absolute stud because when I look at his yards per carry not only was 6.3 last year really high, but it is incredibly stable as evidenced by his 4.9, 5.7, 3.1, and 6.3 marks in his 4 year career. If there is one thing we can be sure of with abslutivity (made that up) it is that yards per carry is stable across the entire population of runningbacks.

This is from the great @TJHernandez's article.

4for4.com/2022/preseason…

If you are playing fantasy football and trying to win a championship you need difference making WR's.

Let's dive in. It takes about 18 ppg in order to have a top 5 season for a WR.

In fact we have 39 unique instances of 18+ ppg since 2015.

39/7 seasons = 5.57/year.

This is kind of an interesting phenomenon.

There are basically different subsets of dynasty players.

1) I just like to roster rookies because that is fun
2) I want to win now at all costs
3) I don't care about cost, give me good players
4) everything at cost.

https://twitter.com/ffb_victoria/status/1509185964291330048

I am only speaking from my own experience here, so take it with a grain of salt as I will be projecting the 15 leagues or so that I play in across the entire population.

I would just like to say that conventional rankings are broken.

The value difference isn't necessarily the same from WR16 to WR17 as it might be from WR17 to WR18.

Tiers help explain this, but at times it isn't enough.

Been contemplating discarding ranks altogether... 🤔 But even tiers don't always explain the difference. Tier 3 to Tier 4 isn't necessarily the same value from Tier 4 to Tier 5.

Lot of folks in my mentions telling me that I am unbearable because all I do is victory lap, and I lack "humility" etc.

Seems like a good time to run through my 2021 rookie rankings.

Ill try to explain how to use them and the rationale etc. Those are my superflex, TE premium rookie rankings.

This was the first year of my "defined process" so I was pretty excited to see how it worked. Prior to this year I used to just kind of "eye ball" it.

I talked about Amari Cooper on the podcast this week, but thought it would be fun to cover it here too.

Let me preface by saying Amari Cooper is one of the best 15 prospects we've seen in the past 20 years

But he hasnt exactly lived up to that billing

Commence Diving. I put up this poll the other day and 49.2% of y'all think he's going to be a WR1 or better in 2021.

I was working my draft guide and was thinking about what would have had to have changed for Devonta in order for him to qualify as Bulletproof.

Let's Dive In. He'd have had to have declared for the draft last year and not have been held back by the likes of Henry Ruggs in his age 19 season.

Here are the flaws.

Senior
Age 22 rookie
Age 20 breakout age
Consistent excellence (didnt hit enough production benchmarks)

I updated my prospect process to "define" the process over the past several months

I imported the grades into my ADP trends database

I define a faceplanter as losing more than 12 spots in startup ADP from May to May per @DLFootball ADP

Here's the last few classes

Lets Dive In 2019 was a super weak class

Lets quickly recap the 7 top 50 picks on that Alabama team and how exactly they've lived up to their draft billing:

Let's dive in.

https://twitter.com/skinzfantrav/status/1385083584831098887

Jerry Jeudy - Solid rookie season and yet the fantasy community is not sold. ADP Face Planter. Bad Sophomore comps. Hard pass for me.

I have long been in favor of Alpha profile WR's but never took the time to define it. With the help of the great @Cooper_DFF I now have a strict definition.

This was pretty eye opening for me.

Let's dive in. There have been 131 Alpha profile WR's taken rounds 1-3.

There have only been 65 Beta's...

One of the most interesting debates on fantasy twitter is the film vs analytics war that wages on year after year.

I think, for the most part, everyone can agree that neither side has all of the answers. So then the question becomes "how to meld them together?"

Let's Dive In. I am certain that everyone has their own way of doing this but I thought I'd share mine. If you do it a different way please share! I am always looking for a better way to do things

Anyway, here it goes...

So as you know by now, buying rookie face planters is typically a bad idea.

But what about at the NFL's most important position, Quarterback?

Let's dive in. I use 1 qb adp because superflex startup adp doesnt go back very far. That means that good QB prospects can go in rounds 1-4 of dynasty rookie drafts. So I am not going to break it down that way for QB.

Instead we'll separate by first and second round NFL picks.

The other day I had said that buying face planting rookie WR's was a bad idea...

But what about RB's?!

Let's dive in. This is a look at all of the rookie RB's that went in the first round of dynasty rookie drafts since 2007 that lost more than 12 spots in startup adp after their rookie year.