Thread by @ASlavitt

COVID Update April 24: What is the game on the next Congressional relief package? People talking about why we should be like Sweden so I called Sweden. How are states doing about testing?

Going on @cnn with @Chriscuomo about 10:30 Eastern. Will start before & finish after. 1/

QUIZ IF YOU WANT IT:

How many states still aren’t averaging 1000 tests/week? Which is the largest by population?

Extra credit: Is it really the right thing to do to use Google or a source document in this quiz when the fun is in the guessing? What % of people will do it anyway?

15 states, Nevada (sorry mayor, you may not be ready yet)

No. 25%. 3/

So with PPP2 or COVID 3.5 done, has the jockeying just begun on the next bill? No. It began long ago.

Why did Pelosi not negotiate to include money for states? Is it because she’s a bad negotiator?

Does McConnell mean it when he may not do a bill w money for states?4/

The answer is no. These two have been negotiating for years.

Pelosi didn’t want something small for states put into the last bill. That would take the pressure off. McConnell knows he can’t bankrupt NY or any state.

It’s how 2 people land on a number between 0 & .5 Trillion.5/

The @NatlGovsAssoc released a comprehensive plan for the states & reopening. When Congress gets together many of the key elements for states are right here.

nga.org/wp-content/upl…

6/

And there are more than states to consider as the @USofCare plan lays out. 7/

unitedstatesofcare.org/press-releases…

I get tweets like this about Sweden. Usually people making the point that people like me are out to kill the economy.

I’m not questioning anyone’s motivation & an impressed that Christopher has a news source that uses algebra & sources almost every number. 8/

I’m guessing Christopher probably knows that we didn’t spend $2.7 trillion to extend 16,000 people’s lives. The President told him we were on track to lose over 2 million people.

But I decided to Sweden to see what’s going on. 9/

Swedes are under few restrictions other than their own desires in contrast to their neighbors.

Here’s what Sweden is seeing. Compared to a similar homogeneous population. Deaths call it twice as high as they need to be?10/

Sweden is the “just open up” strategy, try to build immunity among young people & try to isolate older people. 11/

Here’s what I heard from Sweden:
1. Older people tend to live alone, not as much in nursing homes
2. We saw this not work in UK & are worried it won’t here
3. Politely— we are healthier than you, much less risky for us
4. We have fewer poor people & better health care compact12/

5. We are being careful, most are complaint, but we worry about the folks that aren’t
6. Economy may be slightly better than it would have been but we are so dependent on Europe that it doesn’t matter as much
7. Point to Germany— high testing, early action as the best model13/

People of course can feel free to keep tweeting your ideas about Sweden. They will. 14/

Amazing how many armchair epidemiologists we have in the country. 15/

One prominent* individual who has challenged me to a public debate has been mocking all the people who warned of higher death tolls if we didn’t socially isolate. He fixated on the 60k death toll estimate as his proof.

*According to his bio, he has written a book

16/

I wish like hell it would be 60,000. As I’ve said every time I’m asked what I think, the lower the better.

And also I’m not an epidemiologist. 17/

After Donald Trump started boasting that his actions were going to reduce the death count to 60,009, maybe 50,000, I had a call with the modeler. He clearly didn’t. 18/

medium.com/@ASlavitt/maki…

I’m not crititical of Murray (modeler) for being wrong. He’s going to be wrong be definition. And he wore than happily showed his assumptions.

But beware of people who twist the modeler’s work to fit their agendas. If Murray modeled the US on a Sweden track, it would be bad. 19/

How bad will things be in states that “open up” prematurely?
-I think ppl who can will be more careful than their political leaders
-It won’t be as safe for essential workers
-Hot spots will be harder to spot

Governors & mayors could use more time & money to make it safe20/

We will continue to talk about testing until it’s right. Here’s the state of each state’s testing situation. We have a ways to go.

I am convinced that we are working on it. I’m also convinced that it be be slower than we like. 21/

covidexitstrategy.org

Nobody likes this situation. The burdens will be high. The government will have to continue to spend to support people through this in an unprecedented way. 22/

I know there are many times we will question if “this” is worth it— forgetting that this wasn’t our choice.

The questioning may feel like fracturing, but I hope we forgive each other for coping with very hard times. 23/

Things won’t be normal any time soon. Today, our neice’s birthday without the things we hope for her & our third funeral by video since this started. But we’ve also had dear friends recover miraculously.

Maybe I won’t be taking good things for granted as much any more./end