Nature's Backlash: Virus Upswing for States That Resisted Shutdown Measures (also evidence NPIs saved lives) wsj.com/graphics/coron… 
Here is the key chart. The states and that followed Trump's earlier advice (it will go away on its own) will have longer waits and higher than otherwise necessary deaths. This is also many of his core voting states.
This NYT story about New Mexico making essentially the same point
Here is the context. Mitigation (closing schools& non essential businesses) after first death or surge in infections in individual states is obviously disruptive and economically extremely hurtful. But it does knock down the infection/save lives. nytimes.com/2020/04/22/us/…
The key question here is not what date each state moved to institute social distance policies relative to other US states. It is what date policies were instituted in each individual state compared to when the first death and cluster of infections showed up the individual state
