A short history of US depressions and their electoral consequences
1837-1841: first national depression. Jefferson-Jackson Democrats had dominated national politics for previous three decades. In 1840, they lost both presidency and House to brand-new party, the Whigs.
1837-1841: first national depression. Jefferson-Jackson Democrats had dominated national politics for previous three decades. In 1840, they lost both presidency and House to brand-new party, the Whigs.
1873: deflationary shock from return to metallic currency after Civil War. Debt crisis ravages rural America, north and south. War-winning Republicans massively lost House in 1874, lost the presidential vote in 1876, traded away Reconstruction to hold vestige of power.
1893: Severest depression in US history to that date. Republicans crushingly win House in 1894, presidency in 1896, re-establish the massive political dominance they lost in 1873.
1920: post WW1 deflationary shock caps two years of labor strife, anti-black pogroms in cities of North. Republicans had taken House in 1918. In 1920, Republican Warren Harding wins the presidency with 60.3% of vote
1929-1933. You know about that one.
1945-46. Deflationary shock at end of WW2 as military contracts are cancelled, demobilized soldiers return to labor market. Republicans discredited in 1932 retook House in 1946, nearly took White House in 1948 - but recovery was already underway, so Truman eked it out.
1958: severest recession since end of war. Eisenhower Republicans lose 48 House seats - and fail to elect Nixon to succeed the hugely popular Eisenhower in 1960.
1974, 1980, 2008: You know about those ones too.
Donald Trump and the Trump Republicans will face voters in November with a record of 100,000+ casualties lost to a negligently handled pandemic disease and - even in best case - unemployment still north of 10%.
That's atop a malodorous record of pre-crisis corruption and failure
That's atop a malodorous record of pre-crisis corruption and failure
Bottom line: GOP is in profound profound electoral trouble. If they're lucky, it's merely 1980 type trouble. Very possibly, it's 1932 or 1920 type trouble.
When people say, "Biden needs a message" - he's already got one, same as every out party amid disaster: "Had enough?"
When people say, "Biden needs a message" - he's already got one, same as every out party amid disaster: "Had enough?"
PS:
Many of the incumbent parties taken down by economic crisis had deep strength beforehand.
Jackson party pre-1837;
Coolidge GOP pre-1932;
New Deal Dems pre-1980.
They got crushed by crisis even so.
Trump GOP was unpopular even before the pandemic struck. Now? Yikes.
Many of the incumbent parties taken down by economic crisis had deep strength beforehand.
Jackson party pre-1837;
Coolidge GOP pre-1932;
New Deal Dems pre-1980.
They got crushed by crisis even so.
Trump GOP was unpopular even before the pandemic struck. Now? Yikes.
